Bootstrap review report — d5_wd50_muddy_troublesome_creeks
Generated 2026-08-14 06:49 UTC for Division 5 / Water District 50.
This is a review checklist, not a finished config. Everything below is a suggestion from live DWR data — confirm or correct each section in config.yaml before running this basin for real.
1. Stream-name patterns
Assumed mainstem pattern: MUDDY CREEK (highest-count waterSource value). Candidates below by structure count — decide which are real tributaries worth their own centerline vs. noise, and add them to longitudinal.tributary_stream_patterns in priority order (more-specific names, e.g. "WEST FORK X", must precede substrings of themselves, e.g. "X").
| waterSource | structure count |
|---|---|
| MUDDY CREEK (assumed mainstem) | 65 |
| TROUBLESOME CREEK | 54 |
| PASS CREEK | 35 |
| PINTO CREEK | 20 |
| ANTELOPE CREEK | 15 |
| RED DIRT CREEK | 12 |
| EAST FORK TROUBLESOME CREEK | 11 |
| DEER CREEK | 11 |
| LAWRENCE CREEK | 11 |
| WASTE CREEK | 10 |
| COLBURN CREEK | 10 |
| COLORADO RIVER | 9 |
| HILL CREEK | 9 |
| CARTER CREEK | 8 |
| DUNNING CREEK | 8 |
| ALBERT CREEK | 6 |
| DIAMOND CREEK | 5 |
| LITTLE MUDDY CREEK | 5 |
| STARR GULCH | 5 |
| BADGER CREEK | 4 |
| SHEEP CREEK | 4 |
| MILK CREEK | 3 |
| LINDSEY CREEK | 3 |
| BURKE SPRING CREEK | 3 |
2. Diversion / return classification
Auto-classified from structureType + name patterns: 266 diversions, 55 returns, 22 unclassified (neither pattern matched — these render as neither on the schematic unless added to return_flow_wdids/force_diversion_wdids or a type is added to the diversion/return type lists).
This layer needs the least manual work — it's the same heuristic the engine uses at runtime. Spot-check a sample rather than reviewing every row; if you have a water-year accounting spreadsheet for this basin, cross-reference it against the 'other' bucket specifically (that's where a real augmentation return with an unusual DWR structureType will hide).
2b. Cross-checked against decreed water rights (CDSS)
14 structure(s) have a decreed water right (CDSS waterrights/netamount) that disagrees with the structureType/name-pattern classification above. Same-agency evidence (DWR/HydroBase), not independent of DWR the way the NLDI topology check is — worth a glance, not an automatic correction.
| wdid | structure | currently | decreed uses suggest | decreed uses |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5000769 | WOLFORD MOUNTAIN RESERVOIR POWERPLANT | other | diversion | Power Generation |
| 5005006 | LYONS VAUGHAN WELL NO 1 | other | diversion | Commercial, Domestic, Stock |
| 5005007 | LYONS VAUGHAN WELL NO 2 | other | diversion | Commercial, Domestic, Stock |
| 5005008 | MARTIN DAIRY WELL | other | diversion | Irrigation, Recreation, Stock |
| 5005009 | MUDDY CREEK HIGHWAY WELL | other | diversion | Domestic |
| 5005022 | JOE MCELROYS DOM WELL | other | diversion | Commercial, Domestic, Irrigation |
| 5005031 | LAKE AGNES WELL NO 2 | other | diversion | Domestic, Fishery, Irrigation, Municipal, Recreation, Stock |
| 5005047 | HEINI WELL NO 1 | other | diversion | Domestic, Fire, Irrigation, Stock |
| 5005058 | RIVER OF LIFE GROUNDWATER POND NO 1 | other | diversion | Fishery, Recreation, Stock, Storage, Wildlife |
| 5009002 | ANTELOPE AUG-EX DEPLETION REACH | other | diversion | Fire, Fishery, Other, Recreation, Stock, Wildlife |
| 5009004 | TYLER TAILWATER DITCH DEPLETION REACH | other | diversion | Irrigation, Other |
| 5009005 | RCP WELL NO 1 DEPLETION REACH | other | return | Augmentation, Household Use Only |
| 5009007 | GALLAGHER RANCH RED DIRT - MUDDY CREEK DEPLETION R | other | return | Augmentation |
| 5009008 | LAMAWACAJA SPRING DEPLETION REACH | other | return | Augmentation |
3. Suspected nested tributaries
Still need a human decision — these tributary pairs are comparably close to EACH OTHER as to the mainstem — one may actually join the other rather than the mainstem directly (like Leavenworth Creek -> South Clear Creek in the Clear Creek basin). NLDI couldn't resolve these (no nearby flowline, or ambiguous/no downstream overlap within range) — if you know the real topology, set it in longitudinal.tributary_parent_overrides.
| tributary | possible parent | dist to possible parent (mi) | dist to mainstem (mi) | NLDI result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CARTER CREEK | HILL CREEK | 1.76 | 1.5 | NLDI check failed: 429 Client Error: Too Many Requests for url: https://api.water.usgs.gov/nldi/linked-data/comid/position?f=json&coords=POINT%28-106.419305+40.24866%29 |
| RED DIRT CREEK | PASS CREEK | 0.77 | 2.82 | NLDI check failed: 429 Client Error: Too Many Requests for url: https://api.water.usgs.gov/nldi/linked-data/comid/position?f=json&coords=POINT%28-106.466699+40.163123%29 |
| TROUBLESOME CREEK | WASTE CREEK | 0.88 | 6.87 | NLDI check failed: 429 Client Error: Too Many Requests for url: https://api.water.usgs.gov/nldi/linked-data/comid/position?f=json&coords=POINT%28-106.283547+40.157307%29 |
| ANTELOPE CREEK | PINTO CREEK | 2.64 | 2.06 | NLDI check failed: 429 Client Error: Too Many Requests for url: https://api.water.usgs.gov/nldi/linked-data/comid/position?f=json&coords=POINT%28-106.385845+40.209534%29 |
| MILK CREEK | ALBERT CREEK | 1.04 | 1.87 | NLDI check failed: 429 Client Error: Too Many Requests for url: https://api.water.usgs.gov/nldi/linked-data/comid/position?f=json&coords=POINT%28-106.564206+40.274413%29 |
| PASS CREEK | TROUBLESOME CREEK | 0.01 | 5.16 | NLDI check failed: 429 Client Error: Too Many Requests for url: https://api.water.usgs.gov/nldi/linked-data/comid/position?f=json&coords=POINT%28-106.294439+40.076671%29 |
| WASTE CREEK | LAWRENCE CREEK | 0.0 | 6.36 | NLDI check failed: 429 Client Error: Too Many Requests for url: https://api.water.usgs.gov/nldi/linked-data/comid/position?f=json&coords=POINT%28-106.293091+40.129966%29 |
| DUNNING CREEK | PINTO CREEK | 1.26 | 1.85 | NLDI check failed: 429 Client Error: Too Many Requests for url: https://api.water.usgs.gov/nldi/linked-data/comid/position?f=json&coords=POINT%28-106.476989+40.227731%29 |
| DEER CREEK | RED DIRT CREEK | 0.86 | 2.27 | NLDI check failed: 429 Client Error: Too Many Requests for url: https://api.water.usgs.gov/nldi/linked-data/comid/position?f=json&coords=POINT%28-106.456026+40.172519%29 |
| LINDSEY CREEK | BADGER CREEK | 1.33 | 2.5 | NLDI check failed: 429 Client Error: Too Many Requests for url: https://api.water.usgs.gov/nldi/linked-data/comid/position?f=json&coords=POINT%28-106.456178+40.322777%29 |
| STARR GULCH | TROUBLESOME CREEK | 0.01 | 5.03 | NLDI check failed: 429 Client Error: Too Many Requests for url: https://api.water.usgs.gov/nldi/linked-data/comid/position?f=json&coords=POINT%28-106.297502+40.078609%29 |
| LAWRENCE CREEK | TROUBLESOME CREEK | 0.02 | 6.33 | NLDI check failed: 429 Client Error: Too Many Requests for url: https://api.water.usgs.gov/nldi/linked-data/comid/position?f=json&coords=POINT%28-106.293451+40.129791%29 |
| BURKE SPRING CREEK | PASS CREEK | 0.06 | 4.55 | NLDI check failed: 429 Client Error: Too Many Requests for url: https://api.water.usgs.gov/nldi/linked-data/comid/position?f=json&coords=POINT%28-106.501769+40.114925%29 |
4. Gage placement risk
None — every gage with a resolvable position is within the placement cutoff.
12 more gage(s) pass but are within 2x the cutoff distance — worth a glance if the structure dataset changes later.
Next steps
- Fill in
tributary_stream_patternsfrom section 1. - Resolve section 3's flags (or confirm none apply).
- Resolve section 4's at-risk gages.
- Cross-reference
return_flow_wdids/force_diversion_wdidsagainst any local accounting source you have for this basin. - Review the rendered schematic for this district before relying on it.
Evolution of the network
Computed 2026-08-20 09:13 from 12 gage(s) with cached period-of-record data. Statistical tests (Mann-Kendall trend, Pettitt changepoint) require at least 8 years spanning at least 10 years of record -- gages below that report no signal, not "no change."
Data provenance & quality
Where these numbers come from and how far they can be trusted. Grade D (2/6 points) — the components below are the finding; the letter alone is not. Sources: DWR HydroBase snapshot HydroBase_CO_20260707 (imported 2026-08-19) for history, plus the CDSS REST API for current conditions.
| Check | State | What was measured |
|---|---|---|
| gage freshness | stale | newest gage reading is 45 day(s) old (target 7) |
| diversion record | stale | newest diversion record is 658 day(s) old (DWR publishes ~1 year in arrears) |
| structure coverage | sparse | 23% of schematic structures have data |
Independent check: PASS — 100.0000% agreement across 108,117 stored values re-checked against DWR's authoritative record (HydroBase_CO_20260707), over 20 structures. 0 disagreement(s) beyond a 0.01 cfs tolerance. Checked 2026-08-19; a rotating sample covers the whole basin across successive runs, and the structures this report cites are checked every time.
Federal cross-check: PASS — 99.78% day-level agreement with USGS's own published records for the same gages, across 11 co-listed station(s) and 94,477 overlapping days (within max(2%, 0.5 cfs) daily). Pre-1950 records at some gages carry known between-agency day-stamp and transcription differences — scored at each year's best ±1-day alignment; residual disagreement is real historical divergence, flagged for review.
12 gage(s) / 95,577 daily values (1904-10-01–2026-07-06); 217 structure(s) with diversion records; 360 with decreed rights. Methodology has not yet had independent expert review — treat every figure as an advisory screen, not an administrative or legal conclusion.
Read this first: the measurement network itself evolved
This basin was not always measured the way it is today — the API-era record is dense and recent, the early record sparse. 3 gage(s) and 98 structure(s) report in 2026, but structure reporting only reached half its modern level around ~1985. Every historical claim below is checked against this: long-term shifts that co-move with the growth of the network carry an explicit measurement-evolution caution, and abandonment screens whose idleness begins before the modern reporting era are flagged †.
| Decade | Gages with data (median yr) | Structures reporting (median yr) |
|---|---|---|
| 1900s | 1 | 0 |
| 1920s | 1 | 0 |
| 1930s | 4 | 0 |
| 1940s | 1 | 0 |
| 1950s | 4 | 0 |
| 1960s | 6 | 0 |
| 1970s | 2 | 38 |
| 1980s | 2 | 92 |
| 1990s | 4 | 130 |
| 2000s | 2 | 151 |
| 2010s | 2 | 132 |
| 2020s | 3 | 95 |
Gage flow trend & changepoints
Every located gage with a period of record — dot size scales with the strength of its flow trend (|Sen slope| in %/decade, the same statistic as the table below), color with direction. An amber ring marks a detected Pettitt changepoint. Click a gage to chart its trend and shift.
| Gage | Trend | Change / decade | Significance | Years | Changepoint |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
▸
MUDDY CREEK AT KREMMLING, CO. MUDATKCO |
↓ decreasing | -80.2% | p=0.021 | 14 | ~1986 |
|
▸
MUDDY CREEK NEAR KREMMLING, CO. MUDNEKCO |
↑ increasing | +14.1% | p=0.003 | 28 | ~1956 |
10 other gage(s) show no significant trend or changepoint (not shown).
Mass-balance (network closure) trend
Structure divrec-history backfill coverage as of the last check: 23% of 133 schematic-relevant structures. 0 year(s) clear the 30% coverage gate so far -- the trend activates automatically once qualifying years span a full decade. No action needed; the nightly backfill keeps extending the record.
Reach gain/loss shifts (1990–2026)
Mass-balance kinks computed for every summer month back to 1990 (159 reach-snapshots) — which reaches gain or lose water, and how that has shifted across decades. Each shift is cross-checked against the observation record above: as more diversions became metered, "unaccounted" water shrinks mechanically, which can masquerade as a hydrologic shift.
No reach shows a statistically significant long-term gain/loss shift.
Reservoirs now has its own tab: 53 reservoir(s), end-of-year storage back to 1975, click-to-chart histories.
Cross-gage pattern fingerprint
Not enough gages with a long enough common-coverage window yet to fingerprint shared patterns.
53 reservoir(s) with 6,758 storage measurement(s), 1975–2025. Basin storage as of 2024-10-31 (the record's own end — reservoir records publish ~annually): 55,955 AF across 13 reservoir(s). Storage change is real water the mass balance must credit — a losing reach beside a filling reservoir isn't losing water, it's banking it.
Reservoir map — how full is each vessel?
Each reservoir drawn as a vessel: bubble size ∝ its record-high storage, fill level = last recorded storage as a share of its surveyed capacity (USACE National Inventory of Dams) where a confident NID match exists — the tooltip names the matched dam — and of its own record high otherwise (a wrong capacity would be worse than an honest record high, so only confident joins upgrade). Hover for numbers, click to chart its history below the map. A dashed teal ring marks reservoirs reporting live DWR telemetry — their fill reflects yesterday's storage, drawn as a dotted tail on charts and treated as provisional until the next verified HydroBase snapshot supersedes it. ● <25% ● 25–60% ● 60–90% ● >90%
Basin storage, end of each water year
End-of-water-year totals; per-year reservoir counts shown because reporting coverage varies -- a total is only comparable to years with similar counts.
Largest reservoirs on record
Click a reservoir to chart its full storage history.
| Reservoir | Last recorded storage (AF) | As of |
|---|---|---|
| ▸ WOLFORD MOUNTAIN RESERVOIR (5003668) | 54,555 | 2024-10-31 |
| ▸ ADOLPH DITCH (5000500) | 36,254 | 2019-10-31 |
| ▸ MCMAHON RESERVOIR NO 1 (5003628) | 750 | 1982-10-11 |
| ▸ MCMAHON RESERVOIR NO 2 (5003629) | 550 | 2024-10-17 |
| ▸ HINMAN RESERVOIR (5003618) | 450 | 2024-10-29 |
| ▸ LAKE AGNES (5003623) | 295 | 2019-10-31 |
| ▸ WHITELY PEAK RESERVOIR (5003642) | 250 | 2021-10-31 |
| ▸ DUMONT LAKE (5003666) | 240 | 2021-10-31 |
Decrees, seniority, and administrative calls connected to this basin's flow network. Advisory reading aids on public DWR data — not administrative or legal conclusions. Rights on file: 530 across 360 structure(s); 28 structure(s) carry 0 court-case references.
Abandonment radar (25 screens)
Absolute rights with 10+ years of no recorded diversions. Screens only — storage, alternate points, and plan operations can explain nonuse lawfully. And diversion REPORTING itself only reached its modern level ~1985 — idleness that begins before then may be unreported use, not nonuse (flagged † below).
- OAKS RESERVOIR (5003631) (1890-09-30, 0.0 cfs decreed): last active 1976 — 48 years idle † predates modern reporting era — last recorded activity predates this basin's modern reporting era (~1985) -- early absence of record is weak evidence of nonuse
- PARSONS RESERVOIR (5003632) (1944-11-11, 0.0 cfs decreed): last active 1976 — 48 years idle † predates modern reporting era — last recorded activity predates this basin's modern reporting era (~1985) -- early absence of record is weak evidence of nonuse
- WHEATLEY DIVERSION WORKS POND NO 1 (5003640) (1889-06-01, 0.0 cfs decreed): last active 1976 — 48 years idle † predates modern reporting era — last recorded activity predates this basin's modern reporting era (~1985) -- early absence of record is weak evidence of nonuse
- WHITELY PEAK RESERVOIR (5003642) (1940-04-15, 0.0 cfs decreed): last active 1976 — 48 years idle † predates modern reporting era — last recorded activity predates this basin's modern reporting era (~1985) -- early absence of record is weak evidence of nonuse
- MARTIN PUMP NO 2 DITCH (5000602) (1887-04-21, 8.5 cfs decreed): last active 1979 — 45 years idle † predates modern reporting era — last recorded activity predates this basin's modern reporting era (~1985) -- early absence of record is weak evidence of nonuse
- ALPHA DITCH (5000508) (1903-06-01, 2.0 cfs decreed): last active 1985 — 39 years idle
- BECKER AND HEINI DITCH (5000521) (1887-09-21, 3.5 cfs decreed): last active 1995 — 29 years idle
- LYONS VAUGHAN WELL NO 1 (5005006) (1966-08-02, 0.1 cfs decreed): last active 2000 — 24 years idle
- LYONS VAUGHAN WELL NO 2 (5005007) (1959-08-01, 0.1 cfs decreed): last active 2000 — 24 years idle
- CURRAN SPRINGS (5000694) (1969-09-29, 0.2 cfs decreed): last active 2001 — 23 years idle
Compliance screens (121 advisory flags)
Screened 158 of 360 structures with rights (196 have diversion history on file). A flag is a lead for expert review — augmentation plans, exchanges, and free-river conditions can make over-decree diversions lawful and are deliberately not modeled.
- MIN FLOW MUDDY CREEK (5002000): Observed p99 daily rate 105.0 cfs (max 105.0) exceeds total decreed absolute 20.0 cfs across 4413 recorded day(s).
- HARDSCRABBLE DITCH (5000574): Observed p99 daily rate 35.5 cfs (max 57.0) exceeds total decreed absolute 32.0 cfs across 12299 recorded day(s).
- BECKER NO 2 DITCH (5000516): Observed p99 daily rate 32.4 cfs (max 35.1) exceeds total decreed absolute 6.0 cfs across 6616 recorded day(s).
- TROUBLESOME DITCH (5000654): Observed p99 daily rate 32.0 cfs (max 41.3) exceeds total decreed absolute 23.5 cfs across 16018 recorded day(s).
- BECKER NO 5 DITCH (5000519): Observed p99 daily rate 28.6 cfs (max 28.6) exceeds total decreed absolute 1.3 cfs across 2466 recorded day(s).
- BLICKLEY DITCH (5000526): Observed p99 daily rate 28.0 cfs (max 31.0) exceeds total decreed absolute 18.7 cfs across 6828 recorded day(s).
- MCMAHON DITCH (DEER CR) (5000762): Observed p99 daily rate 27.0 cfs (max 30.0) exceeds total decreed absolute 18.0 cfs across 4912 recorded day(s). Structure holds an Augmentation-use decree -- diversions above the direct-flow decree can be lawful under plan operations; interpret with care.
- HERDE DITCH (5000582): Observed p99 daily rate 23.3 cfs (max 30.0) exceeds total decreed absolute 12.2 cfs across 7773 recorded day(s). Structure holds an Augmentation-use decree -- diversions above the direct-flow decree can be lawful under plan operations; interpret with care.
- PICKERING DITCH (5000628): Observed p99 daily rate 20.0 cfs (max 33.1) exceeds total decreed absolute 9.5 cfs across 8308 recorded day(s).
- MCELROY NO 1 PUMP (5000612): Observed p99 daily rate 18.0 cfs (max 18.0) exceeds total decreed absolute 12.0 cfs across 4156 recorded day(s).
Seniority (top structures by decreed rate)
| Structure | Senior priority date | Rights | Decreed abs (cfs) | Decreed abs (AF) | Conditional? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MISSOURI DITCH (5000606) | 1892-06-02 | 7 | 98.0 | 0 | — |
| KURTZ DITCH NO 2 (5000593) | 1892-06-02 | 3 | 88.5 | 0 | yes |
| DEBERARD DITCH OVERFLOW SYSTEM (5000734) | 1883-06-05 | 6 | 80.7 | 0 | — |
| HAYPARK CANAL HGT NO 1 (5000576) | 1959-08-05 | 1 | 75.0 | 0 | yes |
| MCMAHON DITCH (5000617) | 1884-08-15 | 8 | 72.0 | 4022 | — |
| TOM ENNIS DITCH (5000653) | 1883-05-01 | 3 | 62.3 | 0 | — |
| SARVIS DITCH (5004600) | 1911-05-24 | 2 | 43.0 | 1627 | — |
| MARTIN NO 1 DITCH (SOUTH FORK HGT) (5000601) | 1890-06-30 | 2 | 33.5 | 0 | — |
| MARTIN LILY POND FEEDER DITCH (5000768) | 1939-05-27 | 2 | 33.5 | 0 | — |
| HARDSCRABBLE DITCH (5000574) | 1883-06-05 | 6 | 32.0 | 611 | — |
| CLIFF DITCH (5000539) | 1886-05-31 | 2 | 31.3 | 0 | — |
| HOGBACK DITCH (5000585) | 1885-04-30 | 25 | 26.9 | 615 | — |
| PINTO CREEK DITCH (5000631) | 1896-12-01 | 2 | 24.0 | 0 | — |
| TROUBLESOME DITCH (5000654) | 1889-09-21 | 1 | 23.5 | 0 | — |
| MIN FLOW MUDDY CREEK (5002000) | 1998-07-13 | 1 | 20.0 | 0 | — |
No inventory or legal-document changes detected since the daily watch began.
If a call were placed at a given seniority, which structures in this basin would be out of priority, and how much of their decreed rate would be curtailed? Computed from this basin's cached decrees.
What this does and doesn't model. Seniority arithmetic only: every right junior to the call is treated as curtailed. It does not model reach applicability — structures downstream of the calling point are not administered by it — and it applies no futile-call judgment. Read it as “who is junior to this date, and by how much,” not as a prediction of what the Division Engineer would actually order.
Pick a calling right
Real decrees from this basin, ordered by administration number — that is, by actual seniority. The years will look out of order, and that is correct: an administration number encodes the adjudication date as well as the appropriation date, so a right appropriated in 1970 can be administered ahead of one from 1950. A senior call curtails almost everything; a junior one curtails almost nothing.
Or enter an administration number directly
DWR administration numbers encode appropriation and adjudication dates; lower is more senior.