McElmo Creek Basin

Division 7 · Water District 32

Draft - NLDI/CDSS verified

Bootstrap review report — d7_wd32_mcelmo_creek_basin

Generated 2026-08-16 09:03 UTC for Division 7 / Water District 32.

This is a review checklist, not a finished config. Everything below is a suggestion from live DWR data — confirm or correct each section in config.yaml before running this basin for real.

1. Stream-name patterns

Assumed mainstem pattern: HARTMAN DRAW (highest-count waterSource value). Candidates below by structure count — decide which are real tributaries worth their own centerline vs. noise, and add them to longitudinal.tributary_stream_patterns in priority order (more-specific names, e.g. "WEST FORK X", must precede substrings of themselves, e.g. "X").

waterSource	structure count
HARTMAN DRAW (assumed mainstem)	61
ALKALI CANYON	35
DAWSON DRAW	32
MCELMO CREEK	25
TRANSBASIN WATER	25
SIMON DRAW	18
NARRAGUINNEP CANYON	13
LYNCH DRAW	11
YELLOW JACKET CANYON	9
RAUH ARROYA	8
CROW CANYON	4
CROSS CANYON	3

2. Diversion / return classification

Auto-classified from structureType + name patterns: 243 diversions, 3 returns, 9 unclassified (neither pattern matched — these render as neither on the schematic unless added to return_flow_wdids/force_diversion_wdids or a type is added to the diversion/return type lists).

This layer needs the least manual work — it's the same heuristic the engine uses at runtime. Spot-check a sample rather than reviewing every row; if you have a water-year accounting spreadsheet for this basin, cross-reference it against the 'other' bucket specifically (that's where a real augmentation return with an unusual DWR structureType will hide).

2b. Cross-checked against decreed water rights (CDSS)

2 structure(s) have a decreed water right (CDSS waterrights/netamount) that disagrees with the structureType/name-pattern classification above. Same-agency evidence (DWR/HydroBase), not independent of DWR the way the NLDI topology check is — worth a glance, not an automatic correction.

wdid	structure	currently	decreed uses suggest	decreed uses
3205027	BANE WELL	other	diversion	Commercial, Domestic
3205054	CAVE SPRING POND (WELL) #1	other	diversion	Fire, Irrigation, Stock

3. Suspected nested tributaries

6 flag(s) confirmed connected by USGS NLDI — real surveyed stream-network topology, not a distance guess (see VERIFICATION-PLAN.md). This confirms the two candidates' channels really do merge (ruling out a coincidental-proximity false flag) but NOT auto-applied to tributary_parent_overrides — NLDI's overlap test can't reliably tell which side is upstream once two streams have already merged near DWR's own recorded structures, only that they connect. Confirm the direction (which one is the tributary, which is the parent) from local knowledge or the evidence below, then set it yourself.

pair	NLDI evidence
SIMON DRAW <-> MCELMO CREEK	tributary's downstream NHD trace (comid 3262633) first overlaps MCELMO CREEK's own downstream trace at index 1 (next-nearest candidate: ('MAINSTEM', 6))
NARRAGUINNEP CANYON <-> ALKALI CANYON	tributary's downstream NHD trace (comid 3262503) first overlaps ALKALI CANYON's own downstream trace at index 1 (next-nearest candidate: ('MAINSTEM', 4))
RAUH ARROYA <-> SIMON DRAW	tributary's downstream NHD trace (comid 3262981) first overlaps SIMON DRAW's own downstream trace at index 4 (next-nearest candidate: ('MAINSTEM', 11))
MCELMO CREEK <-> YELLOW JACKET CANYON	tributary's downstream NHD trace (comid 3262751) first overlaps YELLOW JACKET CANYON's own downstream trace at index 3 (next-nearest candidate: none)
LYNCH DRAW <-> ALKALI CANYON	tributary's downstream NHD trace (comid 3262445) first overlaps ALKALI CANYON's own downstream trace at index 0 (next-nearest candidate: ('MAINSTEM', 5))
YELLOW JACKET CANYON <-> MCELMO CREEK	tributary's downstream NHD trace (comid 3262681) first overlaps MCELMO CREEK's own downstream trace at index 4 (next-nearest candidate: none)

Still need a human decision — these tributary pairs are comparably close to EACH OTHER as to the mainstem — one may actually join the other rather than the mainstem directly (like Leavenworth Creek -> South Clear Creek in the Clear Creek basin). NLDI couldn't resolve these (no nearby flowline, or ambiguous/no downstream overlap within range) — if you know the real topology, set it in longitudinal.tributary_parent_overrides.

tributary	possible parent	dist to possible parent (mi)	dist to mainstem (mi)	NLDI result
ALKALI CANYON	MCELMO CREEK	1.2	2.55	ambiguous -- tied earliest overlap at index 1: ['MCELMO CREEK', 'MAINSTEM']
DAWSON DRAW	LYNCH DRAW	2.08	6.29	tributary's downstream NHD trace didn't overlap any candidate parent's own downstream trace within 40km
CROSS CANYON	YELLOW JACKET CANYON	8.26	17.62	tributary's downstream NHD trace didn't overlap any candidate parent's own downstream trace within 40km

4. Gage placement risk

None — every gage with a resolvable position is within the placement cutoff.

16 more gage(s) pass but are within 2x the cutoff distance — worth a glance if the structure dataset changes later.

Next steps

Fill in tributary_stream_patterns from section 1.
Resolve section 3's flags (or confirm none apply).
Resolve section 4's at-risk gages.
Cross-reference return_flow_wdids/force_diversion_wdids against any local accounting source you have for this basin.
Review the rendered schematic for this district before relying on it.

Reconstruct conditions as of

Evolution of the network

Computed 2026-08-20 09:37 from 16 gage(s) with cached period-of-record data. Statistical tests (Mann-Kendall trend, Pettitt changepoint) require at least 8 years spanning at least 10 years of record -- gages below that report no signal, not "no change."

Data provenance & quality

Where these numbers come from and how far they can be trusted. Grade B (4/6 points) — the components below are the finding; the letter alone is not. Sources: DWR HydroBase snapshot HydroBase_CO_20260707 (imported 2026-08-19) for history, plus the CDSS REST API for current conditions.

Check	State	What was measured
gage freshness	stale	newest gage reading is 45 day(s) old (target 7)
diversion record	expected-lag	newest diversion record is 293 day(s) old (DWR publishes ~1 year in arrears)
structure coverage	partial	58% of schematic structures have data

Independent check: PASS — 100.0000% agreement across 184,831 stored values re-checked against DWR's authoritative record (HydroBase_CO_20260707), over 20 structures. 0 disagreement(s) beyond a 0.01 cfs tolerance. Checked 2026-08-19; a rotating sample covers the whole basin across successive runs, and the structures this report cites are checked every time.

Federal cross-check: PASS — 99.85% day-level agreement with USGS's own published records for the same gages, across 8 co-listed station(s) and 75,162 overlapping days (within max(2%, 0.5 cfs) daily). Pre-1950 records at some gages carry known between-agency day-stamp and transcription differences — scored at each year's best ±1-day alignment; residual disagreement is real historical divergence, flagged for review.

16 gage(s) / 141,431 daily values (1926-10-01–2026-07-06); 357 structure(s) with diversion records; 638 with decreed rights. Methodology has not yet had independent expert review — treat every figure as an advisory screen, not an administrative or legal conclusion.

Read this first: the measurement network itself evolved

This basin was not always measured the way it is today — the API-era record is dense and recent, the early record sparse. 10 gage(s) and 182 structure(s) report in 2026, but structure reporting only reached half its modern level around ~1980. Every historical claim below is checked against this: long-term shifts that co-move with the growth of the network carry an explicit measurement-evolution caution, and abandonment screens whose idleness begins before the modern reporting era are flagged †.

Decade	Gages with data (median yr)	Structures reporting (median yr)
1920s	1	0
1940s	1	0
1950s	1	1
1960s	1	52
1970s	3	126
1980s	6	169
1990s	6	186
2000s	8	233
2010s	10	200
2020s	10	184

Gage flow trend & changepoints

Every located gage with a period of record — dot size scales with the strength of its flow trend (|Sen slope| in %/decade, the same statistic as the table below), color with direction. An amber ring marks a detected Pettitt changepoint. Click a gage to chart its trend and shift.

Gage	Trend	Change / decade	Significance	Years	Changepoint
▸ LONE PINE CANAL BELOW GREAT CUT DIKE NEAR DOLORES MVIDIVCO	no clear trend	+84.7%	p=0.277	32	~2002
▸ MCELMO CREEK ABOVE TRAIL CANYON NEAR CORTEZ, CO MCELMZCO	↓ decreasing	-41.4%	p=0.000	33	~2011
▸ MUD CREEK AT STATE HIGHWAY 32, NEAR CORTEZ, CO. MUDHIGCO	↓ decreasing	-23.0%	p=0.000	37	~1998
▸ DOLORES TUNNEL OUTLET NEAR DOLORES DOLTUNCO	↓ decreasing	-11.9%	p=0.000	41	~2011
▸ MCELMO CREEK NEAR COLORADO-UTAH STATE LINE MCELMSCO	no clear trend	-5.0%	p=0.096	75	~2000

11 other gage(s) show no significant trend or changepoint (not shown).

Mass-balance (network closure) trend

Structure divrec-history backfill coverage as of the last check: 58% of 136 schematic-relevant structures. Kink count trend: increasing (p=0.000), kink magnitude trend: increasing (p=0.000) across 46 qualifying year(s).

Reach gain/loss shifts (1985–2026)

Mass-balance kinks computed for every summer month back to 1985 (148 reach-snapshots) — which reaches gain or lose water, and how that has shifted across decades. Each shift is cross-checked against the observation record above: as more diversions became metered, "unaccounted" water shrinks mechanically, which can masquerade as a hydrologic shift.

ROCKY FORD CANAL #2 ABOVE TOTTEN RESERVOIR NEAR CORTEZ: reach shifted from -243 cfs to -89 cfs summer mean (more gaining, p=0.007, 24 yr) [alluvial valley: real alluvial aquifer -- a decades-long shift toward losing is the classic signature of alluvial pumping and urbanization] [measurement-evolution caution: this shift co-moves with the growth of the gage/metering network (rho=-0.63) -- part of it may be unaccounted water becoming accounted, not hydrologic change]

Groundwater now has its own tab: 22 monitored well(s), water-table trends, stream corridors, and the advisory depletion screen.

Reservoirs now has its own tab: 15 reservoir(s), end-of-year storage back to 1975, click-to-chart histories.

Cross-gage pattern fingerprint

Not enough gages with a long enough common-coverage window yet to fingerprint shared patterns.

The basin's aquifer story, from 96 water-level measurements across 22 monitored well(s) (7 alluvial, 0 bedrock, rest unclassified) — plus 1 administered well(s) reporting metered pumping through diversion records. Observation wells and pumping wells are different populations and are never conflated. Click a well to chart its record.

Well map

Every monitored well with a location — hover for identity, click to chart its water-level record below. ● alluvial ● bedrock / confined (Denver Basin, High Plains, etc. — one-way, no human-timescale recharge) ● unclassified — marker size scales with the strength of the well's water-level trend (|Sen slope| in ft/decade — the same Mann-Kendall/Sen statistic as the trends table below); the smallest, faintest dots have too little record to test.

3D aquifer x-ray

Every aquifer unit as its own 3D head surface — alluvial water table on top, Denver Basin members (Dawson, Denver, Arapahoe, Laramie–Fox Hills) stacked beneath where measured — interpolated from measured water levels and animated through time. Units are never mixed; surfaces exist only inside each unit's well coverage (no extrapolation); thin epochs are suppressed with their reason shown. Vertical scale exaggerated for readability; z is head elevation in feet. Advisory — measured heads, not a calibrated model.

Water-table trends

Of 0 well(s) with enough record for a trend test: 0 declining, 0 rising.

Wells labeled by administrative world before anything else is said about them: tributary alluvium participates in the priority system; designated-basin and Denver Basin bedrock aquifers are governed differently and are excluded from stream-connection reasoning. Read bedrock declines differently too: deep bedrock aquifers recharge negligibly on human timescales, so a falling bedrock level is storage mining — effectively permanent — not a drought response that a wet year undoes. All screens advisory.

15 reservoir(s) with 8,715 storage measurement(s), 1975–2026. Basin storage as of 2025-10-31 (the record's own end — reservoir records publish ~annually): 3,647 AF across 3 reservoir(s). Storage change is real water the mass balance must credit — a losing reach beside a filling reservoir isn't losing water, it's banking it.

Reservoir map — how full is each vessel?

Each reservoir drawn as a vessel: bubble size ∝ its record-high storage, fill level = last recorded storage as a share of its surveyed capacity (USACE National Inventory of Dams) where a confident NID match exists — the tooltip names the matched dam — and of its own record high otherwise (a wrong capacity would be worse than an honest record high, so only confident joins upgrade). Hover for numbers, click to chart its history below the map. A dashed teal ring marks reservoirs reporting live DWR telemetry — their fill reflects yesterday's storage, drawn as a dotted tail on charts and treated as provisional until the next verified HydroBase snapshot supersedes it. ● <25% ● 25–60% ● 60–90% ● >90%

Basin storage, end of each water year

End-of-water-year totals; per-year reservoir counts shown because reporting coverage varies -- a total is only comparable to years with similar counts.

Largest reservoirs on record

Click a reservoir to chart its full storage history.

Reservoir	Last recorded storage (AF)	As of
▸ TOTTEN RESERVOIR (3203601)	2,135	2025-10-31
▸ A M PUETT RES OUTLET (3200704)	978	2009-10-16
▸ A M PUETT RESERVOIR (3203603)	770	2025-10-31
▸ NARRAGUINNEP RESERVOIR (3203602)	742	2025-10-31
▸ MARINE LIFE RESORT RESERVOIR (3203794)	35	2017-10-31
▸ WILKERSON POND NO 1 (3203604)	11	2011-10-31
▸ BUTTS RESERVOIR (3203605)	9	2011-10-31
▸ LIVELY RESERVOIR (3203597)	5	2011-10-31

Decrees, seniority, and administrative calls connected to this basin's flow network. Advisory reading aids on public DWR data — not administrative or legal conclusions. Rights on file: 687 across 638 structure(s); 20 structure(s) carry 0 court-case references.

Abandonment radar (25 screens)

Absolute rights with 10+ years of no recorded diversions. Screens only — storage, alternate points, and plan operations can explain nonuse lawfully. And diversion REPORTING itself only reached its modern level ~1980 — idleness that begins before then may be unreported use, not nonuse (flagged † below).

DAWSON DITCH (MCELMO) (3200537) (1943-04-25, 1.1 cfs decreed): last active 1974 — 51 years idle † predates modern reporting era — last recorded activity predates this basin's modern reporting era (~1980) -- early absence of record is weak evidence of nonuse
MURRAY PUMP AND PIPELINE (3200633) (1961-06-30, 0.1 cfs decreed): last active 1974 — 51 years idle † predates modern reporting era — last recorded activity predates this basin's modern reporting era (~1980) -- early absence of record is weak evidence of nonuse
PALMER PUMP AND DITCHES (3200639) (1920-12-31, 1.0 cfs decreed): last active 1976 — 49 years idle † predates modern reporting era — last recorded activity predates this basin's modern reporting era (~1980) -- early absence of record is weak evidence of nonuse
STRATTON DITCH (3200676) (1937-06-10, 0.2 cfs decreed): last active 1979 — 46 years idle † predates modern reporting era — last recorded activity predates this basin's modern reporting era (~1980) -- early absence of record is weak evidence of nonuse
OLD STAGE STATION DIVR (3200637) (1966-12-31, 0.6 cfs decreed): last active 1981 — 44 years idle
HARMON DITCH ALT PT #1 (3200776) (1950-08-19, 0.2 cfs decreed): last active 1983 — 42 years idle
MURPHY DIVERSION NO 1 (3200751) (1978-06-01, 0.5 cfs decreed): last active 1984 — 41 years idle
FETTERMAN HYDRAM (3200756) (1980-04-15, 0.1 cfs decreed): last active 1985 — 40 years idle
HARMON DITCH SPRUELL #2 (3200578) (1950-08-19, 0.1 cfs decreed): last active 1986 — 39 years idle
CULLEN DITCH (3200535) (1900-12-31, 2.5 cfs decreed): last active 1989 — 36 years idle

Compliance screens (145 advisory flags)

Screened 222 of 638 structures with rights (262 have diversion history on file). A flag is a lead for expert review — augmentation plans, exchanges, and free-river conditions can make over-decree diversions lawful and are deliberately not modeled.

HAMBELTON DITCH (3200574): Observed p99 daily rate 16.2 cfs (max 19.0) exceeds total decreed absolute 12.5 cfs across 36288 recorded day(s).
COTTONWOOD DITCH NO 2 (3200529): Observed p99 daily rate 15.0 cfs (max 17.0) exceeds total decreed absolute 10.0 cfs across 33971 recorded day(s).
BLACK DIKE DITCH (3200509): Observed p99 daily rate 13.9 cfs (max 16.9) exceeds total decreed absolute 13.1 cfs across 32347 recorded day(s).
COTTONWOOD DITCH NO 1 (3200528): Observed p99 daily rate 13.5 cfs (max 16.0) exceeds total decreed absolute 10.0 cfs across 26852 recorded day(s).
ROBERT B DUNHAM DITCH (3200651): Observed p99 daily rate 12.6 cfs (max 12.6) exceeds total decreed absolute 3.0 cfs across 2972 recorded day(s).
EATON DITCH (3200558): Observed p99 daily rate 8.4 cfs (max 11.2) exceeds total decreed absolute 6.0 cfs across 19763 recorded day(s).
MURRAY-ZWICKER-TOZER D (3200634): Observed p99 daily rate 8.4 cfs (max 10.3) exceeds total decreed absolute 6.0 cfs across 37422 recorded day(s).
OLD KANIGA DITCH (3200636): Observed p99 daily rate 8.0 cfs (max 8.0) exceeds total decreed absolute 2.0 cfs across 4142 recorded day(s).
SCHALLES DITCH (3200662): Observed p99 daily rate 7.0 cfs (max 8.5) exceeds total decreed absolute 4.0 cfs across 20069 recorded day(s).
BORD DITCH (3200512): Observed p99 daily rate 6.0 cfs (max 7.0) exceeds total decreed absolute 4.0 cfs across 18027 recorded day(s).

Seniority (top structures by decreed rate)

Structure	Senior priority date	Rights	Decreed abs (cfs)	Conditional?
ROCK CREEK DITCH (3200652)	1888-03-20	3	39.3	—
WILSON DITCH (3200690)	1888-06-01	8	28.5	yes
BLACK DIKE DITCH (3200509)	1889-04-15	1	13.1	—
HAMBELTON DITCH (3200574)	1891-04-20	2	12.5	yes
COTTONWOOD DITCH NO 1 (3200528)	1891-01-25	1	10.0	—
COTTONWOOD DITCH NO 2 (3200529)	1890-05-21	1	10.0	—
MTN UTE SAN JUAN DIVR (3200938)	1868-03-02	1	10.0	—
BRUMLEY DRAW IRR DITCH (3200514)	1889-04-20	2	7.3	—
EATON DITCH (3200558)	1908-03-10	3	6.0	—
MURRAY-ZWICKER-TOZER D (3200634)	1892-06-15	2	6.0	yes
ISMAY DITCH (3200590)	1955-01-01	1	5.0	—
SHUMWAY PERKINS PMPG STA (3200665)	1972-01-18	1	5.0	—
N E CARPENTER SEEPAGE D (3200635)	1970-07-31	2	4.8	—
BORD DITCH (3200512)	1910-04-20	2	4.0	—
POWELL AND CODY DITCH (3200644)	1907-02-14	3	4.0	—

No inventory or legal-document changes detected since the daily watch began.

If a call were placed at a given seniority, which structures in this basin would be out of priority, and how much of their decreed rate would be curtailed? Computed from this basin's cached decrees.

What this does and doesn't model. Seniority arithmetic only: every right junior to the call is treated as curtailed. It does not model reach applicability — structures downstream of the calling point are not administered by it — and it applies no futile-call judgment. Read it as “who is junior to this date, and by how much,” not as a prediction of what the Division Engineer would actually order.

Pick a calling right

Real decrees from this basin, ordered by administration number — that is, by actual seniority. The years will look out of order, and that is correct: an administration number encodes the adjudication date as well as the appropriation date, so a right appropriated in 1970 can be administered ahead of one from 1950. A senior call curtails almost everything; a junior one curtails almost nothing.

Or enter an administration number directly

Administration number

DWR administration numbers encode appropriation and adjudication dates; lower is more senior.