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Culebra Creek

Division 3 · Water District 24
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Culebra Creek on the ground — the ditches, wells, reservoirs and gages of Water District 24 · clicktap anything for its record

Snowpack — no snow on the ground at 1 SNOTEL site — normal for the date; the snow year begins in October and typically peaks around April 5. Runoff outlook — Culebra Ck at San Luis : even odds of at least 2 kAF over 06-01 to 09-30 — 22% of a normal season, per NRCS, issued 2026-06-01 — the season’s final; new forecasts begin in January. Full snow & runoff picture — charts, forecast history and how the forecasts have verified →

Sites, exceedance bands and sources
SNOTEL siteElev (ft)SWE (in)Median (in)% of medianTypical peak
Culebra #210560 0.00.0 April 5 (14.0 in)

Culebra Ck at San Luis — 06-01 to 09-30 volume, thousand acre-feet (chance the volume is AT LEAST this):

90%70%50%30%10%Normal
12246 11

Snow-water equivalent and medians (1991–2020) from NRCS SNOTEL; seasonal volume forecasts from the NRCS National Water and Climate Center. Sites and forecast points are assigned to the district whose boundary contains them — snowpack that feeds this district can also sit in a neighboring headwater district. Toggle the Snow chip on the map above to see the sites.

Topology cross-check: 3 parent disagreements, 6 sizable streams not on this network (vs DWR's route framework — under review)

This flow network was built mechanically; DWR's Source Water Route Framework disagrees with it in the places below. Each row is a question a human reviewer has not yet answered — not an error verdict. Checked 7 streams, 4 agree. Know this water? Tell us →

StreamThis site routes it toDWR routes it to
San Francisco Creek the mainstem Ventero Creek
Cuates Creek the mainstem Ventero Creek
Jaroso Creek the mainstem Ventero Creek

Sizable streams DWR maps here that this network does not carry:

Ventero Creek (14 mi) · Puertesito Creek (6 mi) · El Valle Creek (6 mi) · Carneros Creek (5 mi) · El Rito de Aban (3 mi) · Cuchilla Alta Creek (3 mi)

Full diagnostic snapshot pending — this district's weekly-style report (system status, active calls, hydrographs, anomaly flags) is produced by the nightly rotation and appears here after its first run. The tabs above are live now.

Snow and runoff

Snow-water equivalent, WY2026

No snow on the ground — normal for the date; the snow year begins in October. The chart shows the full water year just ending.

SNOTEL siteElev (ft)SWE (in)Median (in)% of medianTypical peak
Culebra #210560 0.00.0 April 5 (14.0 in)

NRCS SNOTEL, daily. Sites are assigned to the district whose boundary contains them — the snow that feeds this district can also sit in a neighboring headwater district.

Two ways a snow year goes wrong (1980–2026)

A bad snow year here comes in two flavors (both called snow droughtA winter that shorts the snowpack. It happens two ways: a dry one, where the snow never comes, and a warm one, where near-normal snow falls but melts off weeks early -- and the river feels them differently.), and the river feels them differently. In 14 of the last 47 winters the snow never came — the pack peaked below 80% of its median. In 1 more, the snow came but left early — a near-normal peak melted out two weeks or more ahead of its usual date, sending the water down before the season needed it. This year was one of the dry ones: the pack peaked at 44% of median.

The snow never came: 1981, 1986, 1988, 1996, 1999, 2002, 2006, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2018, 2022, 2025, 2026. The snow left early: 1989.

Computed by this site from 1 SNOTEL site’ full daily records (NRCS AWDB, back to 1980). Each year is measured against each site’s own multi-decade median — not the 1991–2020 normal the chart above uses — so the 1980s grade against a fair baseline. Peak and melt-out need 85% of the season’s days on the record; thin years are dropped, not guessed. Derived from snow measurements alone — it cannot tell dry-from-warm causes apart, only what the snowpack did.

Runoff outlook — Culebra Ck at San Luis

NRCS's final issue (2026-06-01) calls it even odds that at least 2 kAF arrives over 06-01 to 09-30 — 22% of a normal season; almost certainly at least 1, probably not more than 6. Our own record at this gage shows 2 kAF so far this period (partial record: 36 of 92 days). New forecasts begin in January. How to read these numbers →

90% chance of at least70% chance of at least50% chance of at least30% chance of at least10% chance of at leastNormalObserved
12246 11 2*

How good are these forecasts here? (1950–2025)

Grading every April issue against what the river then delivered, measured at this gage’s own record — 74 seasons: the median miss of the 50% forecast is 26%, with a high bias of 4%, and the observed volume landed inside the stated 10–90% band 90% of the time (a calibrated forecast would say 80%).

Computed by this site: NRCS's archived April issues (their period as issued each year) against the observed volume in DWR’s published record; years with under 90% daily coverage are dropped, not summed. A grade of the forecast, never of the forecasters — these are hard rivers. How this point ranks among every graded Colorado forecast point →

What April snow has meant for this river (1980–2025)

Across 46 measured years, April snowpack has explained only part of this river’s season — the dots below scatter widely, so read any single year’s snow number loosely here. In warm, early-melt years the river delivered a median of 129% of a normal season, against 95% in typical years — the timing of the melt matters, not just its size.

Computed by this site: the district’s April 1 SWE (% of each SNOTEL site’s own-record median) against the observed April–July volume at this gage (% of its median season) — a fixed window every year, unlike the forecast grades above, which use each issue’s own period. The slope is fit so single wild years can’t steer it (Theil–Sen, log space); years missing 10% of their days are dropped.