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East River Basin

Division 4 · Water District 59
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East River Basin on the ground — the ditches, wells, reservoirs and gages of Water District 59 · clicktap anything for its record

Snowpack — no snow on the ground at 3 SNOTEL sites — normal for the date; the snow year begins in October and typically peaks around April 8. Runoff outlook — Taylor Park Reservoir Inflow : even odds of at least 15 kAF over 06-01 to 07-31 — 31% of a normal season, per NRCS, issued 2026-06-01 — the season’s final; new forecasts begin in January. Runoff outlook — Slate R nr Crested Butte: even odds of at least 12 kAF over 06-01 to 07-31 — 28% of a normal season, per NRCS, issued 2026-06-01 — the season’s final; new forecasts begin in January. Runoff outlook — East R at Almont: even odds of at least 19 kAF over 06-01 to 07-31 — 21% of a normal season, per NRCS, issued 2026-06-01 — the season’s final; new forecasts begin in January. Runoff outlook — Gunnison R near Gunnison : even odds of at least 35 kAF over 06-01 to 07-31 — 20% of a normal season, per NRCS, issued 2026-06-01 — the season’s final; new forecasts begin in January. Full snow & runoff picture — charts, forecast history and how the forecasts have verified →

Sites, exceedance bands and sources
SNOTEL siteElev (ft)SWE (in)Median (in)% of medianTypical peak
Butte10190 0.00.0 April 8 (13.7 in)
Park Cone9600 0.10.0 April 9 (10.4 in)
Upper Taylor10710 0.00.0 April 3 (13.6 in)

Taylor Park Reservoir Inflow — 06-01 to 07-31 volume, thousand acre-feet (chance the volume is AT LEAST this):

90%70%50%30%10%Normal
812152027 48

Slate R nr Crested Butte — 06-01 to 07-31 volume, thousand acre-feet (chance the volume is AT LEAST this):

90%70%50%30%10%Normal
911121621 43

East R at Almont — 06-01 to 07-31 volume, thousand acre-feet (chance the volume is AT LEAST this):

90%70%50%30%10%Normal
1618192635 91

Gunnison R near Gunnison — 06-01 to 07-31 volume, thousand acre-feet (chance the volume is AT LEAST this):

90%70%50%30%10%Normal
2430355175 176

Snow-water equivalent and medians (1991–2020) from NRCS SNOTEL; seasonal volume forecasts from the NRCS National Water and Climate Center. Sites and forecast points are assigned to the district whose boundary contains them — snowpack that feeds this district can also sit in a neighboring headwater district. Toggle the Snow chip on the map above to see the sites.

Topology cross-check: 14 parent disagreements, 3 sizable streams not on this network (vs DWR's route framework — under review)

This flow network was built mechanically; DWR's Source Water Route Framework disagrees with it in the places below. Each row is a question a human reviewer has not yet answered — not an error verdict. Checked 31 streams, 17 agree. Know this water? Tell us →

StreamThis site routes it toDWR routes it to
Coal Creek the mainstem Slate River
Willow Creek the mainstem Gunnison River
Beaver Creek the mainstem Gunnison River
Antelope Creek the mainstem Gunnison River
Mill Creek the mainstem Curecanti Creek
Coal Creek the mainstem Soap Creek
Burnt Mill Creek the mainstem Willow Creek
Taylor River the mainstem Gunnison River

Sizable streams DWR maps here that this network does not carry:

Squirrel Creek (5 mi) · Wilson Creek (5 mi) · Middle Creek (5 mi)

Full diagnostic snapshot pending — this district's weekly-style report (system status, active calls, hydrographs, anomaly flags) is produced by the nightly rotation and appears here after its first run. The tabs above are live now.

Snow and runoff

Snow-water equivalent, WY2026

No snow on the ground — normal for the date; the snow year begins in October. The chart shows the full water year just ending.

SNOTEL siteElev (ft)SWE (in)Median (in)% of medianTypical peak
Butte10190 0.00.0 April 8 (13.7 in)
Park Cone9600 0.10.0 April 9 (10.4 in)
Upper Taylor10710 0.00.0 April 3 (13.6 in)

NRCS SNOTEL, daily. Sites are assigned to the district whose boundary contains them — the snow that feeds this district can also sit in a neighboring headwater district.

Two ways a snow year goes wrong (1981–2026)

A bad snow year here comes in two flavors (both called snow droughtA winter that shorts the snowpack. It happens two ways: a dry one, where the snow never comes, and a warm one, where near-normal snow falls but melts off weeks early -- and the river feels them differently.), and the river feels them differently. In 9 of the last 46 winters the snow never came — the pack peaked below 80% of its median. In 1 more, the snow came but left early — a near-normal peak melted out two weeks or more ahead of its usual date, sending the water down before the season needed it. This year was one of the dry ones: the pack peaked at 57% of median.

The snow never came: 1981, 1988, 1990, 2002, 2007, 2012, 2015, 2018, 2026. The snow left early: 1992.

Computed by this site from 3 SNOTEL sites’ full daily records (NRCS AWDB, back to 1981). Each year is measured against each site’s own multi-decade median — not the 1991–2020 normal the chart above uses — so the 1980s grade against a fair baseline. Peak and melt-out need 85% of the season’s days on the record; thin years are dropped, not guessed. Derived from snow measurements alone — it cannot tell dry-from-warm causes apart, only what the snowpack did.

Runoff outlook — Taylor Park Reservoir Inflow

NRCS's final issue (2026-06-01) calls it even odds that at least 15 kAF arrives over 06-01 to 07-31 — 31% of a normal season; almost certainly at least 8, probably not more than 27. New forecasts begin in January. How to read these numbers →

90% chance of at least70% chance of at least50% chance of at least30% chance of at least10% chance of at leastNormal
812152027 48

Runoff outlook — Slate R nr Crested Butte

NRCS's final issue (2026-06-01) calls it even odds that at least 12 kAF arrives over 06-01 to 07-31 — 28% of a normal season; almost certainly at least 9, probably not more than 21. New forecasts begin in January. How to read these numbers →

90% chance of at least70% chance of at least50% chance of at least30% chance of at least10% chance of at leastNormal
911121621 43

How good are these forecasts here? (2001–2006)

Grading every April issue against what the river then delivered, measured at this gage’s own record — 6 seasons: the median miss of the 50% forecast is 12%, with a high bias of 12%, and the observed volume landed inside the stated 10–90% band 83% of the time (a calibrated forecast would say 80%).

Computed by this site: NRCS's archived April issues (their period as issued each year) against the observed volume in DWR’s published record; years with under 90% daily coverage are dropped, not summed. A grade of the forecast, never of the forecasters — these are hard rivers. How this point ranks among every graded Colorado forecast point →

What April snow has meant for this river (1994–2006)

Across 13 measured years, the season’s water has closely followed the April snowpack: a year opening April with 80% of median snow has typically gone on to deliver about 74% of a normal season (a snow-to-runoff elasticityHow strongly one number moves with another. A snow-to-runoff elasticity of 1.5 means a 10% shortfall in April snowpack has typically become a 15% shortfall in the season's water. of 1.0).

Computed by this site: the district’s April 1 SWE (% of each SNOTEL site’s own-record median) against the observed April–July volume at this gage (% of its median season) — a fixed window every year, unlike the forecast grades above, which use each issue’s own period. The slope is fit so single wild years can’t steer it (Theil–Sen, log space); years missing 10% of their days are dropped.

Runoff outlook — East R at Almont

NRCS's final issue (2026-06-01) calls it even odds that at least 19 kAF arrives over 06-01 to 07-31 — 21% of a normal season; almost certainly at least 16, probably not more than 35. Our own record at this gage shows 19 kAF actually delivered (partial record: 36 of 61 days). New forecasts begin in January. How to read these numbers →

90% chance of at least70% chance of at least50% chance of at least30% chance of at least10% chance of at leastNormalObserved
1618192635 91 19

How good are these forecasts here? (1982–2025)

Grading every April issue against what the river then delivered, measured at this gage’s own record — 43 seasons: the median miss of the 50% forecast is 14%, with a low bias of 0%, and the observed volume landed inside the stated 10–90% band 69% of the time (a calibrated forecast would say 80%).

Computed by this site: NRCS's archived April issues (their period as issued each year) against the observed volume in DWR’s published record; years with under 90% daily coverage are dropped, not summed. A grade of the forecast, never of the forecasters — these are hard rivers. How this point ranks among every graded Colorado forecast point →

What April snow has meant for this river (1981–2025)

Across 45 measured years, the season’s water has closely followed the April snowpack: a year opening April with 80% of median snow has typically gone on to deliver about 64% of a normal season (a snow-to-runoff elasticityHow strongly one number moves with another. A snow-to-runoff elasticity of 1.5 means a 10% shortfall in April snowpack has typically become a 15% shortfall in the season's water. of 1.2). In warm, early-melt years the river delivered a median of 66% of a normal season, against 105% in typical years — the timing of the melt matters, not just its size.

Computed by this site: the district’s April 1 SWE (% of each SNOTEL site’s own-record median) against the observed April–July volume at this gage (% of its median season) — a fixed window every year, unlike the forecast grades above, which use each issue’s own period. The slope is fit so single wild years can’t steer it (Theil–Sen, log space); years missing 10% of their days are dropped.

Runoff outlook — Gunnison R near Gunnison

NRCS's final issue (2026-06-01) calls it even odds that at least 35 kAF arrives over 06-01 to 07-31 — 20% of a normal season; almost certainly at least 24, probably not more than 75. Our own record at this gage shows 34 kAF actually delivered (partial record: 36 of 61 days). New forecasts begin in January. How to read these numbers →

90% chance of at least70% chance of at least50% chance of at least30% chance of at least10% chance of at leastNormalObserved
2430355175 176 34

How good are these forecasts here? (1995–2025)

Grading every April issue against what the river then delivered, measured at this gage’s own record — 30 seasons: the median miss of the 50% forecast is 21%, with a high bias of 13%, and the observed volume landed inside the stated 10–90% band 77% of the time (a calibrated forecast would say 80%).

Computed by this site: NRCS's archived April issues (their period as issued each year) against the observed volume in DWR’s published record; years with under 90% daily coverage are dropped, not summed. A grade of the forecast, never of the forecasters — these are hard rivers. How this point ranks among every graded Colorado forecast point →

What April snow has meant for this river (1981–2025)

Across 45 measured years, the season’s water has closely followed the April snowpack: a year opening April with 80% of median snow has typically gone on to deliver about 61% of a normal season (a snow-to-runoff elasticityHow strongly one number moves with another. A snow-to-runoff elasticity of 1.5 means a 10% shortfall in April snowpack has typically become a 15% shortfall in the season's water. of 1.4). In warm, early-melt years the river delivered a median of 67% of a normal season, against 103% in typical years — the timing of the melt matters, not just its size.

Computed by this site: the district’s April 1 SWE (% of each SNOTEL site’s own-record median) against the observed April–July volume at this gage (% of its median season) — a fixed window every year, unlike the forecast grades above, which use each issue’s own period. The slope is fit so single wild years can’t steer it (Theil–Sen, log space); years missing 10% of their days are dropped.