← All basins

Lower Yampa River

Division 6 · Water District 44
Auto-mapped
Something wrong on this page? Tell us →

Lower Yampa River on the ground — the ditches, wells, reservoirs and gages of Water District 44 · clicktap anything for its record

Runoff outlook — Elkhead Ck ab Long Gulch: even odds of at least 1 kAF over 06-01 to 07-31 — 15% of a normal season, per NRCS, issued 2026-06-01 — the season’s final; new forecasts begin in January. Runoff outlook — Yampa R nr Maybell: even odds of at least 73 kAF over 06-01 to 07-31 — 21% of a normal season, per NRCS, issued 2026-06-01 — the season’s final; new forecasts begin in January. Full snow & runoff picture — charts, forecast history and how the forecasts have verified →

Sites, exceedance bands and sources

Elkhead Ck ab Long Gulch — 06-01 to 07-31 volume, thousand acre-feet (chance the volume is AT LEAST this):

90%70%50%30%10%Normal
00124 7

Yampa R nr Maybell — 06-01 to 07-31 volume, thousand acre-feet (chance the volume is AT LEAST this):

90%70%50%30%10%Normal
325273105140 340

Snow-water equivalent and medians (1991–2020) from NRCS SNOTEL; seasonal volume forecasts from the NRCS National Water and Climate Center. Sites and forecast points are assigned to the district whose boundary contains them — snowpack that feeds this district can also sit in a neighboring headwater district. Toggle the Snow chip on the map above to see the sites.

Topology cross-check: 8 parent disagreements, 15 sizable streams not on this network (vs DWR's route framework — under review)

This flow network was built mechanically; DWR's Source Water Route Framework disagrees with it in the places below. Each row is a question a human reviewer has not yet answered — not an error verdict. Checked 23 streams, 15 agree. Know this water? Tell us →

StreamThis site routes it toDWR routes it to
Dry Fork Little Bear Creek the mainstem Little Bear Creek
Blue Gravel Creek the mainstem Fortification Creek
Big Gulch the mainstem Lay Creek
Corral Gulch the mainstem Elkhead Creek
Rock Spring Gulch the mainstem Elkhead Creek
Good Spring Creek the mainstem Milk Creek
Sand Creek the mainstem East Fork Williams Fork
Morapos Creek the mainstem Williams Fork

Sizable streams DWR maps here that this network does not carry:

Williams Fork (28 mi) · Morgan Creek (18 mi) · Maudlin Gulch (17 mi) · Temple Gulch (16 mi) · Sand Spring Gulch (13 mi) · Cedar Springs Draw (12 mi) · Jesse Gulch (11 mi) · Pine Ridge Gulch (7 mi)

Full diagnostic snapshot pending — this district's weekly-style report (system status, active calls, hydrographs, anomaly flags) is produced by the nightly rotation and appears here after its first run. The tabs above are live now.

Snow and runoff

Snow-water equivalent, WY2026

SNOTEL siteElev (ft)SWE (in)Median (in)% of medianTypical peak

NRCS SNOTEL, daily. Sites are assigned to the district whose boundary contains them — the snow that feeds this district can also sit in a neighboring headwater district.

Runoff outlook — Elkhead Ck ab Long Gulch

NRCS's final issue (2026-06-01) calls it even odds that at least 1 kAF arrives over 06-01 to 07-31 — 15% of a normal season; almost certainly at least 0, probably not more than 4. Our own record at this gage shows 1 kAF actually delivered (partial record: 36 of 61 days). New forecasts begin in January. How to read these numbers →

90% chance of at least70% chance of at least50% chance of at least30% chance of at least10% chance of at leastNormalObserved
00124 7 1

How good are these forecasts here? (2011–2025)

Grading every April issue against what the river then delivered, measured at this gage’s own record — 15 seasons: the median miss of the 50% forecast is 27%, with a high bias of 3%, and the observed volume landed inside the stated 10–90% band 80% of the time (a calibrated forecast would say 80%).

Computed by this site: NRCS's archived April issues (their period as issued each year) against the observed volume in DWR’s published record; years with under 90% daily coverage are dropped, not summed. A grade of the forecast, never of the forecasters — these are hard rivers. How this point ranks among every graded Colorado forecast point →

Runoff outlook — Yampa R nr Maybell

NRCS's final issue (2026-06-01) calls it even odds that at least 73 kAF arrives over 06-01 to 07-31 — 21% of a normal season; almost certainly at least 32, probably not more than 140. Our own record at this gage shows 67 kAF actually delivered (partial record: 36 of 61 days). New forecasts begin in January. How to read these numbers →

90% chance of at least70% chance of at least50% chance of at least30% chance of at least10% chance of at leastNormalObserved
325273105140 340 67

How good are these forecasts here? (1965–2025)

Grading every April issue against what the river then delivered, measured at this gage’s own record — 60 seasons: the median miss of the 50% forecast is 17%, with a low bias of 2%, and the observed volume landed inside the stated 10–90% band 75% of the time (a calibrated forecast would say 80%).

Computed by this site: NRCS's archived April issues (their period as issued each year) against the observed volume in DWR’s published record; years with under 90% daily coverage are dropped, not summed. A grade of the forecast, never of the forecasters — these are hard rivers. How this point ranks among every graded Colorado forecast point →