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Arkansas: Headwaters to Salida

Division 2 · Water District 11 · As of 2026-08-19 03:34 MDT
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Arkansas: Headwaters to Salida on the ground — the ditches, wells, reservoirs and gages of Water District 11 · clicktap anything for its record

Snowpack — no snow on the ground at 2 SNOTEL sites — normal for the date; the snow year begins in October and typically peaks around April 19. Runoff outlook — Chalk Ck nr Nathrop: even odds of at least 7 kAF over 06-01 to 09-30 — 43% of a normal season, per NRCS, issued 2026-06-01 — the season’s final; new forecasts begin in January. Runoff outlook — Arkansas R at Salida: even odds of at least 68 kAF over 06-01 to 09-30 — 35% of a normal season, per NRCS, issued 2026-06-01 — the season’s final; new forecasts begin in January. Full snow & runoff picture — charts, forecast history and how the forecasts have verified →

Sites, exceedance bands and sources
SNOTEL siteElev (ft)SWE (in)Median (in)% of medianTypical peak
Brumley10570 0.00.0 April 19 (11.8 in)
Saint Elmo10420 0.10.0 April 9 (11.5 in)

Chalk Ck nr Nathrop — 06-01 to 09-30 volume, thousand acre-feet (chance the volume is AT LEAST this):

90%70%50%30%10%Normal
2571013 17

Arkansas R at Salida — 06-01 to 09-30 volume, thousand acre-feet (chance the volume is AT LEAST this):

90%70%50%30%10%Normal
30536883106 197

Snow-water equivalent and medians (1991–2020) from NRCS SNOTEL; seasonal volume forecasts from the NRCS National Water and Climate Center. Sites and forecast points are assigned to the district whose boundary contains them — snowpack that feeds this district can also sit in a neighboring headwater district. Toggle the Snow chip on the map above to see the sites.

Topology cross-check: 8 parent disagreements, 20 sizable streams not on this network (vs DWR's route framework — under review)

This flow network was built mechanically; DWR's Source Water Route Framework disagrees with it in the places below. Each row is a question a human reviewer has not yet answered — not an error verdict. Checked 27 streams, 19 agree. Know this water? Tell us →

StreamThis site routes it toDWR routes it to
Chalk Creek the mainstem Delmonica Gulch
West Tennessee Creek the mainstem Tennessee Creek
Longs Gulch the mainstem Tennessee Creek
Middle Cottonwood Creek the mainstem Cottonwood Creek
South Cottonwood Creek the mainstem Cottonwood Creek
North Cottonwood Creek the mainstem Cottonwood Creek
Browns Creek the mainstem Stumpy Creek
Box Creek the mainstem Poncha Creek

Sizable streams DWR maps here that this network does not carry:

Lake Fork (14 mi) · Lake Creek (14 mi) · Clear Creek (13 mi) · Pine Creek (12 mi) · Iowa Gulch (11 mi) · Big Union Creek (11 mi) · Fourmile Creek (10 mi) · Tennessee Creek (10 mi)

Drought

Right now

This is the 1st-driest week 27 in 117 years of record at ARKANSAS RIVER AT SALIDA, CO. (as of 2026-06-29; this week’s flow sits at the 1st percentile for the date). On this week’s US Drought Monitor, Saguache County is 40% in D4 exceptional drought (2026-08-25). The law agrees: the most senior active call leaves 95% of this district’s decreed flow rights junior to the calling right this week.

Every year since 1909, week by week

Each thin row is a year at ARKANSAS RIVER AT SALIDA, CO.; each cell is one week’s flow ranked against the same calendar week of every other year — warm means dry for the date, blue wet, so seasonality cancels and droughts appear as warm bands. Gaps are missing record, never a dry river. Click a year to reconstruct it on the Historical tab.

The Drought Monitor’s view since 2000

Mean share of area in each class across Chaffee, Eagle, Lake, Saguache counties — the counties this district’s gages sit in, which overlap the district imperfectly. The Drought Monitor weighs soils, vegetation and local reports; it is CONTEXT beside the river’s own record above, not the water-rights picture.

The law’s own drought gauge

When water runs short, administration answers: calls reach further back in time, and more decreed rights go junior to the calling right. This is that response, weekly since 2005 — the share of this district’s decreed flow rights junior to the most senior active call. Watch it spike in the named droughts below, and linger after the river recovers.

Computed from DWR’s call record (538 calls touching this district) against the district’s rights index. Scoping is deliberately coarse — a call’s own district, or districts named in its comments — and this is administration’s RESPONSE, not a per-structure verdict (each dossier’s curtailment card does that, with stream miles). A deepening call can also reflect growing demand, not only shrinking supply.

This basin’s droughts, by its own record

DroughtSpanWeeks Trough percentileRecovery
unnamed dry spell 2025-09-29 → 2026-02-23 21 27th (2025-10-13) not yet
the 2020-22 drought 2021-03-15 → 2022-04-04 55 18th (2021-12-13) 0 weeks
the 2018 drought 2018-08-27 → 2019-05-27 39 5th (2018-12-03) 2 weeks
the 2012-13 drought 2012-08-13 → 2013-12-02 68 5th (2012-11-19) 2 weeks
unnamed dry spell 2004-08-16 → 2005-12-26 71 15th (2005-02-21) 4 weeks
the 2002 drought 2002-07-22 → 2004-03-01 84 2nd (2002-12-02) 4 weeks
unnamed dry spell 1990-04-30 → 1990-12-03 31 21st (1990-05-28) 5 weeks
unnamed dry spell 1988-10-10 → 1989-03-06 21 23rd (1988-11-14) 5 weeks
the 1981 drought 1981-05-25 → 1981-12-07 28 13th (1981-07-13) 6 weeks
unnamed dry spell 1978-12-11 → 1979-07-23 32 7th (1979-03-05) 0 weeks
the 1977 drought 1977-04-11 → 1978-09-11 74 2nd (1978-03-20) 43 weeks
unnamed dry spell 1975-02-03 → 1975-08-18 28 21st (1975-04-07) 0 weeks
unnamed dry spell 1973-01-29 → 1973-09-03 31 16th (1973-05-07) 0 weeks
unnamed dry spell 1959-01-19 → 1959-11-23 44 17th (1959-03-30) 35 weeks

Detected mechanically: the 26-week smoothed percentile below the 30th for at least 20 weeks; recovered on regaining the 50th. The knobs are stated because the episode list depends on them — a different reasonable choice merges or splits episodes at the edges. Names are attached where an episode overlaps a drought Colorado already talks about.

What drought has cost here

Since 2018, federal crop insurance has paid $16,321 in drought-caused claims across Chaffee, Eagle, Lake, Saguache counties — 0.0% of all insured crop losses there. The worst year was 2018 ($16,321).

USDA crop-insurance indemnities where the recorded cause of loss is drought, summed over the counties this district's gages sit in. Counties overlap water districts imperfectly, and insured-crop claims are a floor on drought damage, not a total. Source: USDA RMA cause-of-loss files.

When this basin claimed its water

Every bar is a year’s new appropriations (1,321 rights across 118 years of shared record), colored by that year’s wetness from the barcode above. Here the correlation is -0.03 — essentially no wet-dry pattern; here, law and settlement set the pace, not the weather. Across the state both behaviors exist: ephemeral southwest basins file after wet demonstrations, transbasin-source basins under drought — and the biggest statewide filing waves sat in the 1950s drought and after 2002, not in the wet 1980s–90s.

Appropriation dates are the CLAIMED initiation of a right, not the courthouse filing date; the record is survivor-biased (abandoned claims are absent, so failed dry-era scrambles are undercounted); and the big 1960s and 2000s spikes sit on legal events — the pre-1969-Act adjudication era and 2000s legislation — not on weather. A correlation here is a description, never a cause.

New to how a dry winter becomes a call on the river? Anatomy of a drought walks the chain in four minutes — snow to rivers to reservoirs to calls to the water table.