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Cache La Poudre River

Division 1 · Water District 3 · As of 2026-09-26 05:11 MDT · 2 weeks ago · also known as Poudre Canyon
Live · machine-built

Cache La Poudre River on the ground — the ditches, wells, reservoirs and gages of Water District 3 · clicktap anything for its record

Browse this district’s ditches, gages, reservoirs, wells and springs as a list.

18% of normal flow, week of 2026-09-21
3 calls the record places on it, 4 unsettled

The Cache La Poudre is critically low for late September -- 18% of normal flow. 3 calls stand against it right now; the most senior right calling dates to 1864. DWR's statements do not settle whether 4 more calls reach it.

Snow and runoff

Source Independent agency measurement · fetched 2026-10-12 · verify at NRCS report generator ↗ Source Our computation, scored against a reference · NRCS forecast, graded here against the gage record

Snow-water equivalent, WY2027

SNOTEL siteElev (ft)SWE (in)Median (in)% of medianTypical peak
Black Mountain8940 0.10.0 — April 17 (12.5 in)
Deadman Hill10240 0.10.6 — May 4 (21.8 in)
Hourglass Lake9380 0.00.2 — April 19 (13.0 in)
Long Draw Resv9980 0.00.4 — April 27 (18.3 in)

NRCS SNOTEL, daily. Sites are assigned to the district whose boundary contains them — the snow that feeds this district can also sit in a neighboring headwater district.

Two ways a snow year goes wrong (1979–2026)

A bad snow year here comes in two flavors (both called snow droughtA winter that shorts the snowpack. It happens two ways: a dry one, where the snow never comes, and a warm one, where near-normal snow falls but melts off weeks early -- and the river feels them differently.), and the river feels them differently. In 8 of the last 48 winters the snow never came — the pack peaked below 80% of its median. In 1 more, the snow came but left early — a near-normal peak melted out two weeks or more ahead of its usual date, sending the water down before the season needed it.

The snow never came: 1981, 1987, 2001, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2007, 2026. The snow left early: 2012.

Computed by this site from 4 SNOTEL sites’ full daily records (NRCS AWDB, back to 1979). Each year is measured against each site’s own multi-decade median — not the 1991–2020 normal the chart above uses — so the 1980s grade against a fair baseline. Peak and melt-out need 85% of the season’s days on the record; thin years are dropped, not guessed. Derived from snow measurements alone — it cannot tell dry-from-warm causes apart, only what the snowpack did.

Runoff outlook — Cache La Poudre R at Canyon Mouth

NRCS's final issue (2026-06-01) calls it even odds that at least 87 kAF arrives over 06-01 to 09-30 — 51% of a normal season; almost certainly at least 68, probably not more than 110. Our own record at this gage shows 66 kAF actually delivered. New forecasts begin in January. How to read these numbers →

We test a record-based adjustment of the April benchmark at every graded point. Here it did not beat NRCS over 96 replayed seasons (27% typical miss unadjusted vs 30% adjusted), so none is shown — NRCS’s own forecast, unadjusted, is the best April benchmark available for this river. Why we test →

90% chance of at least70% chance of at least50% chance of at least30% chance of at least10% chance of at leastNormalObserved
68798796110 169 66

How good are these forecasts here? (1950–2025)

Grading every April issue against what the river then delivered, measured at this gage’s own record — 75 seasons: the median miss of the 50% forecast is 29%, with a high bias of 5%, and the observed volume landed inside the stated 10–90% band 72% of the time (a calibrated forecast would say 80%).

Computed by this site: NRCS's archived April issues (their period as issued each year) against the observed volume in DWR’s published record; years with under 90% daily coverage are dropped, not summed. A grade of the forecast, never of the forecasters — these are hard rivers. How this point ranks among every graded Colorado forecast point →

What April snow has meant for this river (1979–2026)

Across 48 measured years, the season’s water has closely followed the April snowpack: a year opening April with 80% of median snow has typically gone on to deliver about 46% of a normal season (a snow-to-runoff elasticityHow strongly one number moves with another. A snow-to-runoff elasticity of 1.5 means a 10% shortfall in April snowpack has typically become a 15% shortfall in the season's water. of 1.4). In warm, early-melt years the river delivered a median of 25% of a normal season, against 65% in typical years — the timing of the melt matters, not just its size.

Computed by this site: the district’s April 1 SWE (% of each SNOTEL site’s own-record median) against the observed April–July volume at this gage (% of its median season) — a fixed window every year, unlike the forecast grades above, which use each issue’s own period. The slope is fit so single wild years can’t steer it (Theil–Sen, log space); years missing 10% of their days are dropped.

Drought

Source Our computation, no independent reference · computed here from the screened DWR record Source Independent agency measurement · fetched 2026-10-06 · verify at U.S. Drought Monitor ↗

Right now

This is the 26th-driest week 39 in 143 years of record at CACHE LA POUDRE AT CANYON MOUTH NEAR FORT COLLINS (as of 2026-09-21; this week’s flow sits at the 18th percentileRank against the record: a river at its 5th percentile is lower than it was in 95 of the past 100 years on this same date. for the date). On this week’s US Drought Monitor, Weld County is 7% in D4 exceptional drought (2026-10-06).

Every year since 1881, week by week

Each thin row is a year at CACHE LA POUDRE AT CANYON MOUTH NEAR FORT COLLINS; each cell is one week’s flow ranked against the same calendar week of every other year — warm means dry for the date, blue wet, so seasonality cancels and droughts appear as warm bands. Gaps are missing record, never a dry river. Click a year to reconstruct it on the Historical tab.

This year against its analogs

Over the 39 weeks recorded so far, 2026’s weekly trace most resembles 2012 (mean gap 12.4 percentile points; next closest 2020 (17.5), 2007 (18.4)). The analog’s remainder is drawn as context — its ending is what happened to it, not a forecast for this year.

The Drought Monitor’s view since 2000

Mean share of area in each class across Larimer, Larimer, Weld counties — the counties this district’s gages sit in, which overlap the district imperfectly. The Drought Monitor weighs soils, vegetation and local reports; it is CONTEXT beside the river’s own record above, not the water-rights picture.

This basin’s droughts, by its own record

DroughtSpanWeeks Trough percentileFlows recovered Water table back
the 2020-22 drought 2020-09-21 → 2021-03-15 25 22nd (2020-11-30) 2 weeks —
the 2018 drought 2018-09-24 → 2019-02-25 22 23rd (2018-12-03) 2 weeks —
the 2012-13 drought 2012-08-27 → 2013-11-11 63 17th (2012-11-12) 0 weeks —
unnamed dry spell 2009-01-19 → 2009-08-24 31 26th (2009-02-09) 28 weeks —
unnamed dry spell 2006-07-17 → 2007-03-19 35 18th (2006-11-27) 155 weeks —
unnamed dry spell 2005-08-22 → 2006-04-03 32 28th (2005-09-12) 205 weeks —
the 2002 drought 2000-09-04 → 2003-07-21 150 4th (2002-11-04) 71 weeks not yet (26 of 27 wells still below)
unnamed dry spell 1994-09-12 → 1995-08-28 50 13th (1994-11-28) 0 weeks —
unnamed dry spell 1992-11-09 → 1993-08-09 39 20th (1993-03-15) 3 weeks 6 yr (5 wells, 2 still below)
unnamed dry spell 1991-02-18 → 1991-10-07 33 15th (1991-05-13) 99 weeks 1 yr (38 wells, 15 still below)
unnamed dry spell 1988-10-10 → 1990-06-11 87 12th (1989-03-13) 9 weeks —
unnamed dry spell 1987-04-06 → 1988-05-30 60 15th (1987-07-13) 115 weeks —
the 1981 drought 1981-05-11 → 1982-08-30 68 14th (1981-08-03) 4 weeks 2 yr (23 wells, 2 still below)
unnamed dry spell 1979-01-15 → 1979-08-20 31 14th (1979-03-26) 0 weeks 1 yr (26 wells, 2 still below)

Detected mechanically: the 26-week smoothed percentile below the 30th for at least 20 weeks; recovered on regaining the 50th. The water-table clock compares each monitoring well against its own pre-drought median (the 3 years before onset) and dates the year the median well got back — the aquifer remembers longest, and “still below” is a finding, not a gap. The knobs are stated because the episode list depends on them — a different reasonable choice merges or splits episodes at the edges. Names are attached where an episode overlaps a drought Colorado already talks about.

What drought has cost here

Since 1991, federal crop insurance has paid $38,566,387 in drought-caused claims across Larimer, Weld counties — 15.4% of all insured crop losses there. The worst year was 2022 ($8,759,643).

USDA crop-insurance indemnities where the recorded cause of loss is drought, summed over the counties this district's gages sit in. Counties overlap water districts imperfectly, and insured-crop claims are a floor on drought damage, not a total. Source: USDA RMA cause-of-loss files.

When this basin claimed its water

Every bar is a year’s new appropriations (3,667 rights across 145 years of shared record), colored by that year’s wetness from the barcode above. Here the correlation is -0.26 — this basin tended to claim water in dry times, under scarcity pressure. Across the state both behaviors exist: ephemeral southwest basins file after wet demonstrations, transbasin-source basins under drought — and the biggest statewide filing waves sat in the 1950s drought and after 2002, not in the wet 1980s–90s.

Appropriation dates are the CLAIMED initiation of a right, not the courthouse filing date; the record is survivor-biased (abandoned claims are absent, so failed dry-era scrambles are undercounted); and the big 1960s and 2000s spikes sit on legal events — the pre-1969-Act adjudication era and 2000s legislation — not on weather. A correlation here is a description, never a cause.

New to how a dry winter becomes a call on the river? Anatomy of a drought walks the chain in four minutes — snow to rivers to reservoirs to calls to the water table.

Snowpack — 4 SNOTEL sites report here. Runoff outlook — Cache La Poudre R at Canyon Mouth: even odds of at least 87 kAF over 06-01 to 09-30 — 51% of a normal season, per NRCS, issued 2026-06-01 — the season’s final; new forecasts begin in January. Full snow & runoff picture — charts, forecast history and how the forecasts have verified →

Sites, exceedance bands and sources
SNOTEL siteElev (ft)SWE (in)Median (in)% of medianTypical peak
Black Mountain8940 0.10.0 — April 17 (12.5 in)
Deadman Hill10240 0.10.6 — May 4 (21.8 in)
Hourglass Lake9380 0.00.2 — April 19 (13.0 in)
Long Draw Resv9980 0.00.4 — April 27 (18.3 in)

Cache La Poudre R at Canyon Mouth — 06-01 to 09-30 volume, thousand acre-feet (chance the volume is AT LEAST this):

90%70%50%30%10%Normal
68798796110 169

Snow-water equivalent and medians (1991–2020) from NRCS SNOTEL; seasonal volume forecasts from the NRCS National Water and Climate Center. Sites and forecast points are assigned to the district whose boundary contains them — snowpack that feeds this district can also sit in a neighboring headwater district. Toggle the Snow chip on the map above to see the sites.

Topology cross-check: 10 parent disagreements, 20 sizable streams not on this network (vs DWR's route framework — under review)

This flow network was built mechanically; DWR's Source Water Route Framework disagrees with it in the places below. Each row is a question a human reviewer has not yet answered — not an error verdict. Checked 26 streams, 16 agree. Know this water? Tell us →

StreamThis site routes it toDWR routes it to
Sheep Creek the mainstem North Fork Cache La Poudre River
Fish Creek the mainstem Dale Creek
Trail Creek the mainstem North Fork Cache La Poudre River
Rabbit Creek the mainstem North Fork Cache La Poudre River
Lone Pine Creek the mainstem North Fork Cache La Poudre River
South Lone Pine Creek the mainstem Lone Pine Creek
North Lone Pine Creek the mainstem Lone Pine Creek
Manhattan Creek the mainstem Elkhorn Creek

Sizable streams DWR maps here that this network does not carry:

Coalbank Creek (24 mi) · Fossil Creek (16 mi) · Owl Creek (11 mi) · Bennett Creek (11 mi) · Joe Wright Creek (11 mi) · The Slough (10 mi) · Spring Creek (8 mi) · Lewstone Creek (8 mi)

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