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Roaring Fork River Basin

Division 5 · Water District 38 · As of 2026-09-30 05:25 MDT · 2 weeks ago · also known as Roaring Fork

Who may take water from the Roaring Fork River Basin, who is calling for it today, and how it is running, compiled from Colorado Division of Water Resources records. Click anything on the map for its record.

Live · machine-built

Roaring Fork River Basin on the ground — the ditches, wells, reservoirs and gages of Water District 38 · clicktap anything for its record

Browse this district’s ditches, gages, reservoirs, wells and springs as a list.

11% of normal flow, week of 2026-09-21
4 calls the record places on it, 22 unsettled

The Roaring Fork River is critically low for late September -- 11% of normal flow. 4 calls stand against it right now; the most senior right calling dates to 1881. DWR's statements do not settle whether 22 more calls reach it.

Snow and runoff

Source Independent agency measurement · fetched 2026-10-16 · verify at NRCS report generator ↗ Source Our computation, scored against a reference · NRCS forecast, graded here against the gage record

Snow-water equivalent, WY2027

SNOTEL siteElev (ft)SWE (in)Median (in)% of medianTypical peak
Castle Peak11510 0.7— — —
Chapman Tunnel10090 0.00.2 — April 19 (15.4 in)
Independence Pass10570 0.10.0 — April 18 (17.4 in)
Ivanhoe10540 0.10.2 — April 26 (17.2 in)
Kiln9610 0.10.0 — April 7 (13.2 in)
Nast Lake8710 0.00.0 — March 28 (8.8 in)
North Lost Trail9190 0.20.0 — April 4 (17.4 in)
Schofield Pass10640 0.30.0 — April 19 (35.1 in)

NRCS SNOTEL, daily. Sites are assigned to the district whose boundary contains them — the snow that feeds this district can also sit in a neighboring headwater district.

Two ways a snow year goes wrong (1981–2026)

A bad snow year here comes in two flavors (both called snow droughtA winter that shorts the snowpack. It happens two ways: a dry one, where the snow never comes, and a warm one, where near-normal snow falls but melts off weeks early -- and the river feels them differently.), and the river feels them differently. In 6 of the last 46 winters the snow never came — the pack peaked below 80% of its median. In 0 more, the snow came but left early — a near-normal peak melted out two weeks or more ahead of its usual date, sending the water down before the season needed it.

The snow never came: 1981, 1990, 2002, 2012, 2015, 2026.

Computed by this site from 8 SNOTEL sites’ full daily records (NRCS AWDB, back to 1981). Each year is measured against each site’s own multi-decade median — not the 1991–2020 normal the chart above uses — so the 1980s grade against a fair baseline. Peak and melt-out need 85% of the season’s days on the record; thin years are dropped, not guessed. Derived from snow measurements alone — it cannot tell dry-from-warm causes apart, only what the snowpack did.

Runoff outlook — Ruedi Reservoir Inflow

NRCS's final issue (2026-06-01) calls it even odds that at least 15 kAF arrives over 06-01 to 07-31 — 18% of a normal season; almost certainly at least 8, probably not more than 29. New forecasts begin in January. How to read these numbers →

We test a record-based adjustment of the April benchmark at every graded point. Here it did not beat NRCS over 32 replayed seasons (14% typical miss unadjusted vs 16% adjusted), so none is shown — NRCS’s own forecast, unadjusted, is the best April benchmark available for this river. Why we test →

90% chance of at least70% chance of at least50% chance of at least30% chance of at least10% chance of at leastNormal
812152129 83

Runoff outlook — Roaring Fk at Glenwood Springs

NRCS's final issue (2026-06-01) calls it even odds that at least 88 kAF arrives over 06-01 to 07-31 — 20% of a normal season; almost certainly at least 40, probably not more than 150. Our own record at this gage shows 99 kAF actually delivered. New forecasts begin in January. How to read these numbers →

The record-adjusted April benchmark

NRCS’s April issue (2026-04-01) called even odds at 250 kAF over 04-01 to 07-31. Re-anchoring that number on this river’s own history — how its April issues have verified, the winter’s baseflow, and the district’s April 1 snowpack — moves it to 184 kAF. The river delivered 185 kAF.

Computed by this site — not an NRCS number, and shown only because it earned it: replayed over 69 past seasons here (1962–2025), never seeing the year it predicts, the adjustment cut the typical April miss from 24% to 14%. At points where it does not beat NRCS, no adjusted number appears. Coefficients are frozen each August; the model never changes mid-season. Method and honest limits →

90% chance of at least70% chance of at least50% chance of at least30% chance of at least10% chance of at leastNormalObserved
406388120150 445 99

How good are these forecasts here? (1950–2026)

Grading every April issue against what the river then delivered, measured at this gage’s own record — 76 seasons: the median miss of the 50% forecast is 24%, with a high bias of 22%, and the observed volume landed inside the stated 10–90% band 52% of the time (a calibrated forecast would say 80%).

Computed by this site: NRCS's archived April issues (their period as issued each year) against the observed volume in DWR’s published record; years with under 90% daily coverage are dropped, not summed. A grade of the forecast, never of the forecasters — these are hard rivers. How this point ranks among every graded Colorado forecast point →

What April snow has meant for this river (1981–2026)

Across 46 measured years, the season’s water has closely followed the April snowpack: a year opening April with 80% of median snow has typically gone on to deliver about 62% of a normal season (a snow-to-runoff elasticityHow strongly one number moves with another. A snow-to-runoff elasticity of 1.5 means a 10% shortfall in April snowpack has typically become a 15% shortfall in the season's water. of 1.3).

Computed by this site: the district’s April 1 SWE (% of each SNOTEL site’s own-record median) against the observed April–July volume at this gage (% of its median season) — a fixed window every year, unlike the forecast grades above, which use each issue’s own period. The slope is fit so single wild years can’t steer it (Theil–Sen, log space); years missing 10% of their days are dropped.

Drought

Source Our computation, no independent reference · computed here from the screened DWR record Source Independent agency measurement · fetched 2026-10-13 · verify at U.S. Drought Monitor ↗

Right now

This is the 13th-driest week 39 in 120 years of record at ROARING FORK RIVER AT GLENWOOD SPRINGS, CO. (as of 2026-09-21; this week’s flow sits at the 11th percentileRank against the record: a river at its 5th percentile is lower than it was in 95 of the past 100 years on this same date. for the date). On this week’s US Drought Monitor, Eagle County is 100% in D4 exceptional drought (2026-10-13). The law agrees: the most senior active call leaves 100% of this district’s decreed flow rights junior to the calling right this week.

Every year since 1906, week by week

Each thin row is a year at ROARING FORK RIVER AT GLENWOOD SPRINGS, CO.; each cell is one week’s flow ranked against the same calendar week of every other year — warm means dry for the date, blue wet, so seasonality cancels and droughts appear as warm bands. Gaps are missing record, never a dry river. Click a year to reconstruct it on the Historical tab.

This year against its analogs

Over the 39 weeks recorded so far, 2026’s weekly trace most resembles 2002 (mean gap 11.3 percentile points; next closest 2021 (12.3), 1977 (13.8)). The analog’s remainder is drawn as context — its ending is what happened to it, not a forecast for this year.

The Drought Monitor’s view since 2000

Mean share of area in each class across Eagle, Garfield, Gunnison, Pitkin counties — the counties this district’s gages sit in, which overlap the district imperfectly. The Drought Monitor weighs soils, vegetation and local reports; it is CONTEXT beside the river’s own record above, not the water-rights picture.

The law’s own drought gauge

When water runs short, administration answers: calls reach further back in time, and more decreed rights go junior to the calling right. This is that response, weekly since 2002 — the share of this district’s decreed flow rights junior to the most senior active call. Watch it spike in the named droughts below, and linger after the river recovers.

Computed from DWR’s call record (407 calls touching this district) against the district’s rights index. Scoping is deliberately coarse — a call’s own district, or districts named in its comments — and this is administration’s RESPONSE, not a per-structure verdict (each dossier’s curtailment card does that, with stream miles). A deepening call can also reflect growing demand, not only shrinking supply.

This basin’s droughts, by its own record

DroughtSpanWeeks Trough percentileFlows recovered Water table back
unnamed dry spell 2025-08-04 → 2026-09-28 60 9th (2026-09-28) not yet —
the 2020-22 drought 2020-08-17 → 2022-07-04 98 12th (2021-08-09) 53 weeks —
the 2018 drought 2018-07-16 → 2019-06-24 49 13th (2018-11-26) 3 weeks —
the 2012-13 drought 2012-08-13 → 2013-12-16 70 3rd (2013-03-25) 2 weeks —
the 2002 drought 2004-08-09 → 2005-02-07 26 23rd (2004-10-04) 8 weeks —
the 2002 drought 2002-05-27 → 2003-11-24 78 3rd (2003-04-07) 71 weeks —
the 2002 drought 2001-02-19 → 2001-10-29 36 22nd (2001-07-09) 179 weeks —
unnamed dry spell 1990-03-26 → 1991-02-18 47 12th (1990-09-24) 2 weeks —
unnamed dry spell 1988-09-12 → 1989-02-27 24 20th (1988-10-31) 5 weeks —
the 1981 drought 1981-06-15 → 1982-01-18 31 15th (1981-08-31) 0 weeks —
the 1977 drought 1977-04-11 → 1978-05-22 58 2nd (1977-11-07) 2 weeks 2 yr (15 wells, 3 still below)
unnamed dry spell 1968-01-08 → 1968-09-23 37 20th (1968-05-20) 51 weeks —
unnamed dry spell 1966-09-26 → 1967-05-29 35 15th (1966-11-28) 120 weeks —
the 1963-64 drought 1965-01-04 → 1965-07-05 26 18th (1965-03-15) 2 weeks —

Detected mechanically: the 26-week smoothed percentile below the 30th for at least 20 weeks; recovered on regaining the 50th. The water-table clock compares each monitoring well against its own pre-drought median (the 3 years before onset) and dates the year the median well got back — the aquifer remembers longest, and “still below” is a finding, not a gap. The knobs are stated because the episode list depends on them — a different reasonable choice merges or splits episodes at the edges. Names are attached where an episode overlaps a drought Colorado already talks about.

When this basin claimed its water

Every bar is a year’s new appropriations (5,598 rights across 121 years of shared record), colored by that year’s wetness from the barcode above. Here the correlation is +0.06 — essentially no wet-dry pattern; here, law and settlement set the pace, not the weather. Across the state both behaviors exist: ephemeral southwest basins file after wet demonstrations, transbasin-source basins under drought — and the biggest statewide filing waves sat in the 1950s drought and after 2002, not in the wet 1980s–90s.

Appropriation dates are the CLAIMED initiation of a right, not the courthouse filing date; the record is survivor-biased (abandoned claims are absent, so failed dry-era scrambles are undercounted); and the big 1960s and 2000s spikes sit on legal events — the pre-1969-Act adjudication era and 2000s legislation — not on weather. A correlation here is a description, never a cause.

New to how a dry winter becomes a call on the river? Anatomy of a drought walks the chain in four minutes — snow to rivers to reservoirs to calls to the water table.

Snowpack — 8 SNOTEL sites report here. Runoff outlook — Ruedi Reservoir Inflow : even odds of at least 15 kAF over 06-01 to 07-31 — 18% of a normal season, per NRCS, issued 2026-06-01 — the season’s final; new forecasts begin in January. Runoff outlook — Roaring Fk at Glenwood Springs: even odds of at least 88 kAF over 06-01 to 07-31 — 20% of a normal season, per NRCS, issued 2026-06-01 — the season’s final; new forecasts begin in January. Full snow & runoff picture — charts, forecast history and how the forecasts have verified →

Sites, exceedance bands and sources
SNOTEL siteElev (ft)SWE (in)Median (in)% of medianTypical peak
Castle Peak11510 0.7— — —
Chapman Tunnel10090 0.00.2 — April 19 (15.4 in)
Independence Pass10570 0.10.0 — April 18 (17.4 in)
Ivanhoe10540 0.10.2 — April 26 (17.2 in)
Kiln9610 0.10.0 — April 7 (13.2 in)
Nast Lake8710 0.00.0 — March 28 (8.8 in)
North Lost Trail9190 0.20.0 — April 4 (17.4 in)
Schofield Pass10640 0.30.0 — April 19 (35.1 in)

Ruedi Reservoir Inflow — 06-01 to 07-31 volume, thousand acre-feet (chance the volume is AT LEAST this):

90%70%50%30%10%Normal
812152129 83

Roaring Fk at Glenwood Springs — 06-01 to 07-31 volume, thousand acre-feet (chance the volume is AT LEAST this):

90%70%50%30%10%Normal
406388120150 445

Snow-water equivalent and medians (1991–2020) from NRCS SNOTEL; seasonal volume forecasts from the NRCS National Water and Climate Center. Sites and forecast points are assigned to the district whose boundary contains them — snowpack that feeds this district can also sit in a neighboring headwater district. Toggle the Snow chip on the map above to see the sites.

Topology cross-check: 2 parent disagreements, 8 sizable streams not on this network (vs DWR's route framework — under review)

This flow network was built mechanically; DWR's Source Water Route Framework disagrees with it in the places below. Each row is a question a human reviewer has not yet answered — not an error verdict. Checked 31 streams, 29 agree. Know this water? Tell us →

StreamThis site routes it toDWR routes it to
Hunter Creek the mainstem Snowmass Creek
Dry Woody Creek the mainstem Red Canyon

Sizable streams DWR maps here that this network does not carry:

Lincoln Creek (12 mi) · Red Canyon (9 mi) · Difficult Creek (9 mi) · Lost Man Creek (6 mi) · Red Canyon (6 mi) · Luchsinger Creek (6 mi) · McFarlane Creek (4 mi) · Crystal Spring Creek (4 mi)

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