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Clear Creek

Division 1 · Water District 7 · As of 2026-08-29 00:40 MDT
Full analysis
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Clear Creek on the ground — the ditches, wells, reservoirs and gages of Water District 7 · clicktap anything for its record

Snowpack — no snow on the ground at 1 SNOTEL site — normal for the date; the snow year begins in October and typically peaks around May 2. Runoff outlook — Clear Ck at Golden: even odds of at least 52 kAF over 06-01 to 09-30 — 52% of a normal season, per NRCS, issued 2026-06-01 — the season’s final; new forecasts begin in January. Full snow & runoff picture — charts, forecast history and how the forecasts have verified →

Sites, exceedance bands and sources
SNOTEL siteElev (ft)SWE (in)Median (in)% of medianTypical peak
Loveland Basin11410 0.00.0 — May 2 (24.4 in)

Clear Ck at Golden — 06-01 to 09-30 volume, thousand acre-feet (chance the volume is AT LEAST this):

90%70%50%30%10%Normal
4248525663 100

Snow-water equivalent and medians (1991–2020) from NRCS SNOTEL; seasonal volume forecasts from the NRCS National Water and Climate Center. Sites and forecast points are assigned to the district whose boundary contains them — snowpack that feeds this district can also sit in a neighboring headwater district. Toggle the Snow chip on the map above to see the sites.

Topology cross-check: 2 parent disagreements, 10 sizable streams not on this network (vs DWR's route framework — under review)

This flow network was built mechanically; DWR's Source Water Route Framework disagrees with it in the places below. Each row is a question a human reviewer has not yet answered — not an error verdict. Checked 11 streams, 9 agree. Know this water? Tell us →

StreamThis site routes it toDWR routes it to
South Fork Ralston Creek the mainstem Ralston Creek
Coal Creek the mainstem Boulder Creek

Sizable streams DWR maps here that this network does not carry:

Beaver Brook (11 mi) · Lena Gulch (10 mi) · Tucker Gulch (9 mi) · Little Dry Creek (9 mi) · Mill Creek (9 mi) · Guy Gulch (8 mi) · Elk Creek (6 mi) · Soda Creek (5 mi)

Snow and runoff

Snow-water equivalent, WY2026

No snow on the ground — normal for the date; the snow year begins in October. The chart shows the full water year just ending.

SNOTEL siteElev (ft)SWE (in)Median (in)% of medianTypical peak
Loveland Basin11410 0.00.0 — May 2 (24.4 in)

NRCS SNOTEL, daily. Sites are assigned to the district whose boundary contains them — the snow that feeds this district can also sit in a neighboring headwater district.

Two ways a snow year goes wrong (1993–2026)

A bad snow year here comes in two flavors (both called snow droughtA winter that shorts the snowpack. It happens two ways: a dry one, where the snow never comes, and a warm one, where near-normal snow falls but melts off weeks early -- and the river feels them differently.), and the river feels them differently. In 5 of the last 34 winters the snow never came — the pack peaked below 80% of its median. In 0 more, the snow came but left early — a near-normal peak melted out two weeks or more ahead of its usual date, sending the water down before the season needed it. This year was one of the dry ones: the pack peaked at 59% of median.

The snow never came: 2002, 2004, 2012, 2021, 2026.

Computed by this site from 1 SNOTEL site’ full daily records (NRCS AWDB, back to 1993). Each year is measured against each site’s own multi-decade median — not the 1991–2020 normal the chart above uses — so the 1980s grade against a fair baseline. Peak and melt-out need 85% of the season’s days on the record; thin years are dropped, not guessed. Derived from snow measurements alone — it cannot tell dry-from-warm causes apart, only what the snowpack did.

Runoff outlook — Clear Ck at Golden

NRCS's final issue (2026-06-01) calls it even odds that at least 52 kAF arrives over 06-01 to 09-30 — 52% of a normal season; almost certainly at least 42, probably not more than 63. Our own record at this gage shows 19 kAF so far this period (partial record: 70 of 92 days). New forecasts begin in January. How to read these numbers →

90% chance of at least70% chance of at least50% chance of at least30% chance of at least10% chance of at leastNormalObserved
4248525663 100 19*

How good are these forecasts here? (1975–2025)

Grading every April issue against what the river then delivered, measured at this gage’s own record — 50 seasons: the median miss of the 50% forecast is 17%, with a high bias of 8%, and the observed volume landed inside the stated 10–90% band 78% of the time (a calibrated forecast would say 80%).

Computed by this site: NRCS's archived April issues (their period as issued each year) against the observed volume in DWR’s published record; years with under 90% daily coverage are dropped, not summed. A grade of the forecast, never of the forecasters — these are hard rivers. How this point ranks among every graded Colorado forecast point →

What April snow has meant for this river (1993–2026)

Across 34 measured years, the season’s water has closely followed the April snowpack: a year opening April with 80% of median snow has typically gone on to deliver about 71% of a normal season (a snow-to-runoff elasticityHow strongly one number moves with another. A snow-to-runoff elasticity of 1.5 means a 10% shortfall in April snowpack has typically become a 15% shortfall in the season's water. of 1.3). This year opened April at 60% of median snow and delivered 33% of a normal season.

Computed by this site: the district’s April 1 SWE (% of each SNOTEL site’s own-record median) against the observed April–July volume at this gage (% of its median season) — a fixed window every year, unlike the forecast grades above, which use each issue’s own period. The slope is fit so single wild years can’t steer it (Theil–Sen, log space); years missing 10% of their days are dropped.