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Bear Creek

Division 1 · Water District 9 · As of 2026-08-18 03:02 MDT
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Bear Creek on the ground — the ditches, wells, reservoirs and gages of Water District 9 · clicktap anything for its record

Snowpack — no snow on the ground at 1 SNOTEL site — normal for the date; the snow year begins in October and typically peaks around April 29. Runoff outlook — Bear Ck ab Evergreen: even odds of at least 7 kAF over 06-01 to 09-30 — 66% of a normal season, per NRCS, issued 2026-06-01 — the season’s final; new forecasts begin in January. Full snow & runoff picture — charts, forecast history and how the forecasts have verified →

Sites, exceedance bands and sources
SNOTEL siteElev (ft)SWE (in)Median (in)% of medianTypical peak
Echo Lake10660 0.00.0 April 29 (9.0 in)

Bear Ck ab Evergreen — 06-01 to 09-30 volume, thousand acre-feet (chance the volume is AT LEAST this):

90%70%50%30%10%Normal
467912 10

Snow-water equivalent and medians (1991–2020) from NRCS SNOTEL; seasonal volume forecasts from the NRCS National Water and Climate Center. Sites and forecast points are assigned to the district whose boundary contains them — snowpack that feeds this district can also sit in a neighboring headwater district. Toggle the Snow chip on the map above to see the sites.

Snow and runoff

Snow-water equivalent, WY2026

No snow on the ground — normal for the date; the snow year begins in October. The chart shows the full water year just ending.

SNOTEL siteElev (ft)SWE (in)Median (in)% of medianTypical peak
Echo Lake10660 0.00.0 April 29 (9.0 in)

NRCS SNOTEL, daily. Sites are assigned to the district whose boundary contains them — the snow that feeds this district can also sit in a neighboring headwater district.

Two ways a snow year goes wrong (1999–2026)

A bad snow year here comes in two flavors (both called snow droughtA winter that shorts the snowpack. It happens two ways: a dry one, where the snow never comes, and a warm one, where near-normal snow falls but melts off weeks early -- and the river feels them differently.), and the river feels them differently. In 6 of the last 28 winters the snow never came — the pack peaked below 80% of its median. In 1 more, the snow came but left early — a near-normal peak melted out two weeks or more ahead of its usual date, sending the water down before the season needed it. This year was one of the dry ones: the pack peaked at 32% of median.

The snow never came: 2002, 2006, 2012, 2018, 2022, 2026. The snow left early: 2009.

Computed by this site from 1 SNOTEL site’ full daily records (NRCS AWDB, back to 1999). Each year is measured against each site’s own multi-decade median — not the 1991–2020 normal the chart above uses — so the 1980s grade against a fair baseline. Peak and melt-out need 85% of the season’s days on the record; thin years are dropped, not guessed. Derived from snow measurements alone — it cannot tell dry-from-warm causes apart, only what the snowpack did.

Runoff outlook — Bear Ck ab Evergreen

NRCS's final issue (2026-06-01) calls it even odds that at least 7 kAF arrives over 06-01 to 09-30 — 66% of a normal season; almost certainly at least 4, probably not more than 12. Our own record at this gage shows 2 kAF so far this period (partial record: 78 of 92 days). New forecasts begin in January. How to read these numbers →

90% chance of at least70% chance of at least50% chance of at least30% chance of at least10% chance of at leastNormalObserved
467912 10 2*

How good are these forecasts here? (2004–2025)

Grading every April issue against what the river then delivered, measured at this gage’s own record — 22 seasons: the median miss of the 50% forecast is 34%, with a high bias of 21%, and the observed volume landed inside the stated 10–90% band 68% of the time (a calibrated forecast would say 80%).

Computed by this site: NRCS's archived April issues (their period as issued each year) against the observed volume in DWR’s published record; years with under 90% daily coverage are dropped, not summed. A grade of the forecast, never of the forecasters — these are hard rivers. How this point ranks among every graded Colorado forecast point →

What April snow has meant for this river (1999–2026)

Across 28 measured years, the season’s water has loosely followed the April snowpack: a year opening April with 80% of median snow has typically gone on to deliver about 81% of a normal season (a snow-to-runoff elasticityHow strongly one number moves with another. A snow-to-runoff elasticity of 1.5 means a 10% shortfall in April snowpack has typically become a 15% shortfall in the season's water. of 0.7). In warm, early-melt years the river delivered a median of 89% of a normal season, against 101% in typical years — the timing of the melt matters, not just its size. This year opened April at 3% of median snow and delivered 24% of a normal season.

Computed by this site: the district’s April 1 SWE (% of each SNOTEL site’s own-record median) against the observed April–July volume at this gage (% of its median season) — a fixed window every year, unlike the forecast grades above, which use each issue’s own period. The slope is fit so single wild years can’t steer it (Theil–Sen, log space); years missing 10% of their days are dropped.