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South Platte Cheesman to Denver Gage

Division 1 · Water District 8 · As of 2026-08-30 00:43 MDT
Full analysis
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South Platte Cheesman to Denver Gage on the ground — the ditches, wells, reservoirs and gages of Water District 8 · clicktap anything for its record

Runoff outlook — South Platte R at South Platte: even odds of at least 58 kAF over 06-01 to 09-30 — 44% of a normal season, per NRCS, issued 2026-06-01 — the season’s final; new forecasts begin in January. Full snow & runoff picture — charts, forecast history and how the forecasts have verified →

Sites, exceedance bands and sources

South Platte R at South Platte — 06-01 to 09-30 volume, thousand acre-feet (chance the volume is AT LEAST this):

90%70%50%30%10%Normal
2947587091 131

Snow-water equivalent and medians (1991–2020) from NRCS SNOTEL; seasonal volume forecasts from the NRCS National Water and Climate Center. Sites and forecast points are assigned to the district whose boundary contains them — snowpack that feeds this district can also sit in a neighboring headwater district. Toggle the Snow chip on the map above to see the sites.

Topology cross-check: 12 parent disagreements, 20 sizable streams not on this network (vs DWR's route framework — under review)

This flow network was built mechanically; DWR's Source Water Route Framework disagrees with it in the places below. Each row is a question a human reviewer has not yet answered — not an error verdict. Checked 36 streams, 24 agree. Know this water? Tell us →

StreamThis site routes it toDWR routes it to
Jarre Creek the mainstem Plum Creek
Bear Creek the mainstem West Plum Creek
West Plum Creek the mainstem Plum Creek
East Plum Creek the mainstem Plum Creek
West Cherry Creek the mainstem Cherry Creek
East Cherry Creek the mainstem Cherry Creek
Elk Creek the mainstem West Cherry Creek
Fourmile Creek the mainstem South Fork South Platte River

Sizable streams DWR maps here that this network does not carry:

Cache la Poudre River (127 mi) · Box Elder Creek (82 mi) · Big Thompson River (79 mi) · Clear Creek (66 mi) · Big Dry Creek (43 mi) · Saint Vrain Creek (32 mi) · Beebe Draw (30 mi) · Second Creek (25 mi)

334 gages · 23 active calls · Week of Aug 17–Aug 23, 2026 — 235 alerts, 476 warnings

⚠ This district is administered as part of the deployed South Platte product, whose modeled mainstem currently runs Denver gage → Greeley (the WD2 reach). The schematic and mass balance shown here are that combined product — this district's own upstream reach is not yet independently modeled. Calls, stations, and rights data ARE district-specific.

Snow and runoff

Snow-water equivalent, WY2026

SNOTEL siteElev (ft)SWE (in)Median (in)% of medianTypical peak

NRCS SNOTEL, daily. Sites are assigned to the district whose boundary contains them — the snow that feeds this district can also sit in a neighboring headwater district.

Runoff outlook — South Platte R at South Platte

NRCS's final issue (2026-06-01) calls it even odds that at least 58 kAF arrives over 06-01 to 09-30 — 44% of a normal season; almost certainly at least 29, probably not more than 91. Our own record at this gage shows 87 kAF so far this period. New forecasts begin in January. How to read these numbers →

90% chance of at least70% chance of at least50% chance of at least30% chance of at least10% chance of at leastNormalObserved
2947587091 131 87*

How good are these forecasts here? (1979–2026)

Grading every April issue against what the river then delivered, measured at this gage’s own record — 47 seasons: the median miss of the 50% forecast is 25%, with a low bias of 19%, and the observed volume landed inside the stated 10–90% band 82% of the time (a calibrated forecast would say 80%).

Computed by this site: NRCS's archived April issues (their period as issued each year) against the observed volume in DWR’s published record; years with under 90% daily coverage are dropped, not summed. A grade of the forecast, never of the forecasters — these are hard rivers. How this point ranks among every graded Colorado forecast point →