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South Platte Cheesman to Denver Gage

Division 1 · Water District 8 · As of 2026-10-09 05:05 MDT · 6 days ago

Who may take water from the South Platte Cheesman to Denver Gage, who is calling for it today, and how it is running, compiled from Colorado Division of Water Resources records. Click anything on the map for its record.

Live · machine-built

South Platte Cheesman to Denver Gage on the ground — the ditches, wells, reservoirs and gages of Water District 8 · clicktap anything for its record

Browse this district’s ditches, gages, reservoirs, wells and springs as a list.

69% of normal flow, week of 2026-09-21
3 calls the record places on it, 6 unsettled

The South Platte River is below normal for late September -- 69% of normal flow. 3 calls stand against it right now; the most senior right calling dates to 1863. DWR's statements do not settle whether 6 more calls reach it.

Snow and runoff

Source Independent agency measurement · fetched 2026-10-14 · verify at NRCS report generator ↗ Source Our computation, scored against a reference · NRCS forecast, graded here against the gage record

Snow-water equivalent, WY2027

SNOTEL siteElev (ft)SWE (in)Median (in)% of medianTypical peak

NRCS SNOTEL, daily. Sites are assigned to the district whose boundary contains them — the snow that feeds this district can also sit in a neighboring headwater district.

Runoff outlook — South Platte R at South Platte

NRCS's final issue (2026-06-01) calls it even odds that at least 58 kAF arrives over 06-01 to 09-30 — 44% of a normal season; almost certainly at least 29, probably not more than 91. Our own record at this gage shows 110 kAF actually delivered. New forecasts begin in January. How to read these numbers →

We test a record-based adjustment of the April benchmark at every graded point. Here it did not beat NRCS over 78 replayed seasons (23% typical miss unadjusted vs 21% adjusted), so none is shown — NRCS’s own forecast, unadjusted, is the best April benchmark available for this river. Why we test →

90% chance of at least70% chance of at least50% chance of at least30% chance of at least10% chance of at leastNormalObserved
2947587091 131 110

How good are these forecasts here? (1979–2026)

Grading every April issue against what the river then delivered, measured at this gage’s own record — 47 seasons: the median miss of the 50% forecast is 25%, with a low bias of 19%, and the observed volume landed inside the stated 10–90% band 82% of the time (a calibrated forecast would say 80%).

Computed by this site: NRCS's archived April issues (their period as issued each year) against the observed volume in DWR’s published record; years with under 90% daily coverage are dropped, not summed. A grade of the forecast, never of the forecasters — these are hard rivers. How this point ranks among every graded Colorado forecast point →

Drought

Source Our computation, no independent reference · computed here from the screened DWR record Source Independent agency measurement · fetched 2026-10-06 · verify at U.S. Drought Monitor ↗

Right now

This is the 91st-driest week 39 in 132 years of record at SOUTH PLATTE RIVER AT DENVER (as of 2026-09-21; this week’s flow sits at the 69th percentileRank against the record: a river at its 5th percentile is lower than it was in 95 of the past 100 years on this same date. for the date). On this week’s US Drought Monitor, Jefferson County is 44% in D3 extreme drought (2026-10-06). The law agrees: the most senior active call leaves 97% of this district’s decreed flow rights junior to the calling right this week.

Every year since 1895, week by week

Each thin row is a year at SOUTH PLATTE RIVER AT DENVER; each cell is one week’s flow ranked against the same calendar week of every other year — warm means dry for the date, blue wet, so seasonality cancels and droughts appear as warm bands. Gaps are missing record, never a dry river. Click a year to reconstruct it on the Historical tab.

This year against its analogs

Over the 39 weeks recorded so far, 2026’s weekly trace most resembles 2002 (mean gap 11.3 percentile points; next closest 1908 (13.1), 1934 (15.6)). The analog’s remainder is drawn as context — its ending is what happened to it, not a forecast for this year.

The Drought Monitor’s view since 2000

Mean share of area in each class across Arapahoe, Denver, Douglas, Jefferson counties — the counties this district’s gages sit in, which overlap the district imperfectly. The Drought Monitor weighs soils, vegetation and local reports; it is CONTEXT beside the river’s own record above, not the water-rights picture.

The law’s own drought gauge

When water runs short, administration answers: calls reach further back in time, and more decreed rights go junior to the calling right. This is that response, weekly since 1950 — the share of this district’s decreed flow rights junior to the most senior active call. Watch it spike in the named droughts below, and linger after the river recovers.

Computed from DWR’s call record (1221 calls touching this district) against the district’s rights index. Scoping is deliberately coarse — a call’s own district, or districts named in its comments — and this is administration’s RESPONSE, not a per-structure verdict (each dossier’s curtailment card does that, with stream miles). A deepening call can also reflect growing demand, not only shrinking supply.

This basin’s droughts, by its own record

DroughtSpanWeeks Trough percentileFlows recovered Water table back
the 2020-22 drought 2020-08-24 → 2021-04-26 35 13th (2020-11-16) 2 weeks 5 yr (110 wells, 53 still below)
the 2018 drought 2018-07-16 → 2019-02-04 29 24th (2018-09-24) 7 weeks not yet (70 of 140 wells still below)
the 2012-13 drought 2012-08-13 → 2013-04-22 36 18th (2012-10-15) 33 weeks 3 yr (162 wells, 58 still below)
the 2002 drought 2003-11-24 → 2004-05-31 27 25th (2003-12-29) 17 weeks not yet (61 of 107 wells still below)
the 2002 drought 2002-07-15 → 2003-06-30 50 10th (2002-12-16) 10 weeks not yet (64 of 100 wells still below)
unnamed dry spell 1994-10-24 → 1995-03-20 21 25th (1994-12-19) 13 weeks not yet (51 of 94 wells still below)
the 1981 drought 1981-08-10 → 1982-02-01 25 25th (1981-10-05) 35 weeks 3 yr (61 wells, 20 still below)
the 1977 drought 1977-07-18 → 1979-05-28 97 15th (1977-10-31) 5 weeks 6 yr (35 wells, 16 still below)
unnamed dry spell 1969-03-03 → 1969-08-04 22 19th (1969-04-28) 0 weeks not yet (11 of 16 wells still below)
unnamed dry spell 1966-06-13 → 1967-11-06 73 16th (1967-05-15) 90 weeks 17 yr (21 wells, 10 still below)
the 1963-64 drought 1962-10-15 → 1965-08-16 148 6th (1965-02-15) 0 weeks 17 yr (29 wells, 11 still below)
unnamed dry spell 1960-11-21 → 1961-04-24 22 24th (1961-01-30) 19 weeks 1 yr (29 wells, 6 still below)
unnamed dry spell 1958-11-17 → 1959-08-10 38 14th (1959-01-12) 40 weeks 1 yr (26 wells, 5 still below)
the 1950s drought 1955-11-21 → 1957-08-12 90 1st (1957-02-18) 0 weeks —

Detected mechanically: the 26-week smoothed percentile below the 30th for at least 20 weeks; recovered on regaining the 50th. The water-table clock compares each monitoring well against its own pre-drought median (the 3 years before onset) and dates the year the median well got back — the aquifer remembers longest, and “still below” is a finding, not a gap. The knobs are stated because the episode list depends on them — a different reasonable choice merges or splits episodes at the edges. Names are attached where an episode overlaps a drought Colorado already talks about.

What drought has cost here

Since 1991, federal crop insurance has paid $27,520,820 in drought-caused claims across Arapahoe, Denver, Douglas, Jefferson counties — 55.3% of all insured crop losses there. The worst year was 2022 ($4,231,473).

USDA crop-insurance indemnities where the recorded cause of loss is drought, summed over the counties this district's gages sit in. Counties overlap water districts imperfectly, and insured-crop claims are a floor on drought damage, not a total. Source: USDA RMA cause-of-loss files.

When this basin claimed its water

Every bar is a year’s new appropriations (14,945 rights across 132 years of shared record), colored by that year’s wetness from the barcode above. Here the correlation is -0.04 — essentially no wet-dry pattern; here, law and settlement set the pace, not the weather. Across the state both behaviors exist: ephemeral southwest basins file after wet demonstrations, transbasin-source basins under drought — and the biggest statewide filing waves sat in the 1950s drought and after 2002, not in the wet 1980s–90s.

Appropriation dates are the CLAIMED initiation of a right, not the courthouse filing date; the record is survivor-biased (abandoned claims are absent, so failed dry-era scrambles are undercounted); and the big 1960s and 2000s spikes sit on legal events — the pre-1969-Act adjudication era and 2000s legislation — not on weather. A correlation here is a description, never a cause.

New to how a dry winter becomes a call on the river? Anatomy of a drought walks the chain in four minutes — snow to rivers to reservoirs to calls to the water table.

Runoff outlook — South Platte R at South Platte: even odds of at least 58 kAF over 06-01 to 09-30 — 44% of a normal season, per NRCS, issued 2026-06-01 — the season’s final; new forecasts begin in January. Full snow & runoff picture — charts, forecast history and how the forecasts have verified →

Sites, exceedance bands and sources

South Platte R at South Platte — 06-01 to 09-30 volume, thousand acre-feet (chance the volume is AT LEAST this):

90%70%50%30%10%Normal
2947587091 131

Snow-water equivalent and medians (1991–2020) from NRCS SNOTEL; seasonal volume forecasts from the NRCS National Water and Climate Center. Sites and forecast points are assigned to the district whose boundary contains them — snowpack that feeds this district can also sit in a neighboring headwater district. Toggle the Snow chip on the map above to see the sites.

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